Mexico - Peru prediction 29/09/2026

Mexico vs Peru prediction for the Friendly International match on September 29, 2026, at 22:00. Based on the latest form, head-to-head record, and bookmaker odds, Mexico is the clear favorite with a 62% win probability. Peru has a 16% chance, and the draw sits at 22%.

Team Form

Mexico comes into this match with three wins, one draw, and one loss in their last five games. They drew 1-1 with Colombia in a friendly on September 26, lost 3-2 to England in the World Cup, and beat Ecuador 2-0, Czech Republic 3-0, and Korea Republic 1-0. Peru's recent form is weaker: one win, one draw, and three losses. They lost 4-1 to USA on September 26, fell 3-1 to Spain, beat Haiti 2-1, drew 2-2 with Honduras, and lost 2-0 to Senegal.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record between Mexico and Peru shows one previous meeting. Mexico won that match 1-0 in a Friendly International on September 24, 2022. Peru has never beaten Mexico in this fixture.

League Table Positions

This is a Friendly International, so there are no league table positions or points to compare. The focus is entirely on recent form and the historical matchup.

Win Probability: Mexico or Peru?

After calculating the implied probabilities from the best available odds and adjusting for team form and the head-to-head advantage, Mexico has a 62% chance to win, the draw is at 22%, and Peru has a 16% chance. Mexico's strong World Cup performances and perfect H2H record give them a significant edge. Peru's recent defensive struggles, conceding 12 goals in their last five matches, lower their chances considerably.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see Mexico as the heavy favorite. The best home win odds are around 1.44, while a draw pays up to 4.23, and an away win for Peru is as high as 7.67. Based on the stats, the most likely outcome is a Mexico victory. The odds and the form guide point in the same direction: Mexico should control this match. Our Mexico vs Peru prediction is a home win.