Minija Kretinga - Neptunas Klaipeda prediction 19/09/2026

Minija Kretinga vs Neptunas Klaipeda prediction for the 1 Lyga match on Sep 19 at 11:00. Based on current form, head-to-head record, and league table positions, Minija Kretinga is the clear favorite with a 65% win probability. The draw sits at 22%, and Neptunas Klaipeda has a 13% chance of an away win.

Team Form

Minija Kretinga comes into this match in excellent shape. Their last five results are four wins and one draw. In their most recent match on Sep 12, they beat Dainava Alytus 3-0 away. Before that, they won 3-0 at home against FK Transinvest B, and also beat Dainava Alytus 3-2 in the Cup. A 2-1 away win at FA Siauliai B and a 0-0 home draw with FK Kauno Zalgiris 2 complete the picture. They are scoring freely and look very hard to beat.

Neptunas Klaipeda's form is more mixed. Their last five matches show two wins and three losses. They beat Lietava Jonava 2-0 at home on Sep 11, but lost 1-0 away to Vilnius Zalgiris B just before that. A 3-1 home win over Atmosfera Mazeikiai was followed by a 2-0 away loss at BFA Vilnius, and a heavy 4-0 home defeat to FK Babrungas Plunge. Away from home, they have been inconsistent.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record between these two teams shows Minija Kretinga with 6 wins, Neptunas Klaipeda with 3 wins, and 1 draw in their last 10 meetings. The most recent match was on May 16, 2026, when Minija Kretinga won 3-1 away at Neptunas Klaipeda. Before that, Minija Kretinga won 1-0 away on Jul 27, 2025. However, Neptunas Klaipeda did win 4-0 away at Minija Kretinga on Mar 15, 2025, showing they can cause problems. The overall trend favors the home side.

League Table Positions

Minija Kretinga sits top of the 1 Lyga table with 61 points from 23 matches. They have 20 wins, 1 draw, and just 2 losses, with 61 goals scored and only 12 conceded. At home, their record is perfect: 10 wins from 10 matches, 28 goals for and 5 against. Neptunas Klaipeda is 4th with 44 points from 24 matches, with 14 wins, 2 draws, and 8 losses. Their away record is decent with 6 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses, scoring 14 and conceding 11. The gap in points and home dominance strongly points to a Minija Kretinga win.

Win Probability: Minija Kretinga or Neptunas Klaipeda?

Based on the odds, form, head-to-head, and standings, we calculate the win probability as follows: Minija Kretinga has a 65% chance of winning, the draw is at 22%, and Neptunas Klaipeda has a 13% chance. The bookmakers' odds imply a home win probability around 66% after removing the margin, and we have slightly adjusted for Minija Kretinga's perfect home record and Neptunas Klaipeda's recent away losses. The conclusion is clear: Minija Kretinga is the team most likely to win this match.

Odds & Match Prediction

The available odds for this match are: Minija Kretinga win at 1.43, draw at 3.95, and Neptunas Klaipeda win at 5.90. Bookmakers see Minija Kretinga as the strong favorite, and the stats back that up. Our Minija Kretinga vs Neptunas Klaipeda prediction is a home win. The home side's form, league position, and head-to-head advantage make them the best pick. A bet on Minija Kretinga to win looks like the safest option based on the numbers.