Nesebar - CSKA Sofia II prediction 12/10/2026

The Nesebar vs CSKA Sofia II prediction is set for October 12, 2026, in the Bulgarian B PFG. This match brings together two teams with contrasting league positions, and based on our win probability, CSKA Sofia II is the clear favorite with a 52% chance of winning, while Nesebar has a 26% chance and a draw sits at 22%. Read on for the full betting tips, head-to-head record, and team form analysis.

Team Form

Nesebar comes into this match with a mixed home record, showing two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five matches. Their last outing against CSKA Sofia II on October 10 ended in a 0-0 draw. Before that, they lost 2-0 away at Vihren Sandanski but bounced back with a thrilling 4-3 win over Beroe Stara Zagora. They also drew 1-1 with Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa and beat Rilski Sportist Samokov 2-1.

CSKA Sofia II looks sharper in recent form. They have three wins, one draw, and one loss in the same five-match span. After the goalless draw with Nesebar, they beat Sportist Svoge 1-0, hammered Montana 4-0, and grabbed an impressive 3-1 away win at Dobrudzha 1919. The only blip was a 1-0 loss at Etar Veliko Tarnovo. CSKA Sofia II has momentum, especially going forward.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record between these two sides heavily favors CSKA Sofia II. In three previous meetings, Nesebar has never won - CSKA Sofia II has two victories and one game ended in a draw. The last two completed matches (in March 2025 and February 2017) both ended 2-0 to CSKA Sofia II, with Nesebar failing to score. Their most recent meeting, just two days before this game, finished 0-0. This history gives a clear edge to the away side in the who will win question.

League Table Positions

In the B PFG overall standings, CSKA Sofia II sits at the top with 24 points from 12 games (7 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses), having scored 23 goals and conceded only 9. Nesebar is in 7th place with 18 points (5-3-4), with 20 goals for and 17 against. The gap is significant, highlighting CSKA Sofia II's consistency. At home, Nesebar is stronger - 4th with 14 points from 7 games, scoring 17 goals. But CSKA Sofia II's away form is also solid, ranked 3rd with 11 points from 7 away matches, only conceding 4 goals on the road. The league table positions point toward an away win.

Win Probability: Nesebar or CSKA Sofia II?

We calculated the win probability based on odds normalization, recent form, and head-to-head stats. The probability for a CSKA Sofia II win is 52%, a draw is 22%, and a Nesebar win is 26%. Despite Nesebar's decent home record, CSKA Sofia II's superior overall quality, defensive solidity away from home, and H2H dominance make them the favorite. The chances of Nesebar breaking their winless run in this fixture are low. A draw is the next most likely outcome, but the numbers clearly back the league leaders.

Odds & Match Prediction

Odds for this match are not available in the data at this moment. Bookmakers typically see teams like CSKA Sofia II as the favorite in such clashes, given the league table and recent form. Based on all the stats, the final Nesebar vs CSKA Sofia II prediction is an away win, with a low-scoring match likely - CSKA Sofia II has conceded only 4 goals in 7 away games. A 1-0 or 2-0 correct score fits the pattern. Our betting tip is to back CSKA Sofia II to win, given their 52% win probability and strong defensive record.