NK Rudar Velenje - Dravinja prediction 28/09/2026

NK Rudar Velenje vs Dravinja prediction for the 2 SNL match on Sep 28, 2026, at 14:00. Based on the latest odds, team form, and head-to-head record, NK Rudar Velenje is the favorite with a 55% win probability. The draw sits at 25%, and Dravinja has a 20% chance to win.

Team Form

NK Rudar Velenje comes into this match with a mixed run of results: W, W, L, W, L in their last five games. At home, they have been strong, winning all three league matches this season with 9 goals scored and only 1 conceded. Their recent home performances include a 2-0 win over Triglav Kranj and a 4-1 victory against Bilje.

Dravinja's form is poor: W, L, D, L, L in the last five. They have struggled on the road, losing heavily to Tabor Sezana (5-1) and Dren Vrhnika (2-0). Their only win in this period was a 3-1 home result against NK Bistrica. Defensive issues away from home are a clear concern.

Head-to-Head Record

In the last five meetings, the head-to-head record is evenly balanced: NK Rudar Velenje has 2 wins, Dravinja has 2 wins, and there has been 1 draw. The most recent match on Apr 25, 2026, ended in a 1-1 draw. Before that, Dravinja won 1-0 at home in October 2025. The overall goal difference in these five games is 4-4, showing how tight this fixture usually is.

League Table Positions

NK Rudar Velenje sits 8th in the 2 SNL table with 12 points from 7 matches (4 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses). Their home record is perfect: 3 wins from 3, with a goal difference of +8. Dravinja is not in the top 12 of the overall standings, which suggests they are in the lower half of the table. The gap in home and away form makes NK Rudar Velenje the clear favorite on paper.

Win Probability: NK Rudar Velenje or Dravinja?

After analyzing the odds, recent form, H2H, and league positions, we calculate the win probabilities as follows: NK Rudar Velenje has a 55% chance to win, the draw is at 25%, and Dravinja has a 20% chance. The odds imply a home win probability around 49%, but NK Rudar Velenje's perfect home record and Dravinja's poor away form push that number higher. The draw is a realistic outcome given the tight H2H history, but the home side's strength makes them the most likely winner.

Odds & Match Prediction

The best available odds for this match show NK Rudar Velenje at 1.62, the draw at 2.40, and Dravinja at 4.50. Bookmakers see NK Rudar Velenje as the favorite, and our prediction aligns with that view. Based on the stats, the most probable outcome is a home win. A correct score bet on 2-0 or 2-1 for NK Rudar Velenje could offer value. For betting tips, the home win market is the safest option, while the under 2.5 goals market might also be worth considering given the historical low-scoring meetings.