Northern Ireland - Ukraine prediction 14/11/2026

Our Ukraine vs Northern Ireland prediction for the UEFA Nations League match on Oct 2, 2026, at 15:45 points to a home win. Ukraine enters the game as the favorite with a 52% win probability, while Northern Ireland has a 20% chance and the draw sits at 28%. This betting tip is based on recent form, head-to-head record, and the latest odds.

Team Form

Ukraine's last five results show three wins, one draw, and one loss (W-W-L-W-D). In their most recent match on Sep 28, they drew 0-0 away at Georgia. Before that, they beat Hungary 1-0 away on Sep 25. The team has kept two clean sheets in their last two UEFA Nations League games.

Northern Ireland's recent form reads two wins, two draws, and one loss (D-W-L-W-D). They drew 0-0 at home against Hungary on Sep 28 and won 1-0 away at Georgia on Sep 25. Their away performances in the Nations League have been solid, with four points from two games.

Head-to-Head Record

Ukraine and Northern Ireland have met twice before, both in friendly internationals on Jun 3, 2021. Ukraine won both matches 1-0. The head-to-head record stands at 2 wins for Ukraine, 0 draws, and 0 wins for Northern Ireland.

League Table Positions

In the UEFA Nations League away standings, Ukraine ranks 4th with 4 points from 2 games (1 win, 1 draw, 0 losses). They have scored 1 goal and conceded 0. Northern Ireland does not appear in the top positions of the provided overall, home, or away tables, which suggests a lower points total or a different group context in this competition phase.

Win Probability: Ukraine or Northern Ireland?

Based on the available data, we calculate the win probability as follows: Ukraine has a 52% chance to win, the draw is at 28%, and Northern Ireland has a 20% chance. This calculation starts from the inverse of the best available odds (home 2.00, draw 1.90, away 4.00), normalized to remove the bookmaker margin. We then adjusted for Ukraine's stronger head-to-head record (2 wins in 2 games), their slightly better recent form, and their higher position in the away league table. Northern Ireland's away resilience keeps the draw probability significant, but Ukraine's historical edge and home advantage make them the more likely winner.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers' odds for the 1X2 market vary. The best odds available show Ukraine to win at 2.00, the draw at 1.90, and Northern Ireland to win at 4.00. Other odds sets include home wins priced at 2.05, 2.08, 2.14, and 2.75. The draw odds range from 1.90 to 3.22, and away win odds from 4.00 to 5.50. The odds clearly indicate Ukraine as the favorite. Our Ukraine vs Northern Ireland prediction is a home win, but the low draw odds suggest a tight match is expected. Based on the stats, a 1-0 or 2-0 scoreline for Ukraine is a realistic outcome.