Renate - Novara prediction 07/09/2026

Our Renate vs Novara prediction for this Serie C match on Sep 07, 2026 points to a tight contest. Based on the latest odds and head-to-head record, Renate enters as the slight favorite with a 48% win probability, while Novara has a 26% chance and the draw sits at 26%.

Team Form

Renate's recent form has been poor. They have lost three of their last five matches, with one draw and one win. Their last outing was a 4-1 defeat away to Cittadella in the Coppa Serie C on Sep 03. Before that, they lost 1-0 at home to Cittadella in the league and 3-1 away to Alcione. The only bright spots were a 2-2 draw at Lumezzane in the cup and a 2-0 friendly win over Citta di Varese.

Novara's form is slightly more stable, with two draws, two losses, and one win in their last five. They drew 0-0 at home with Livorno in the Coppa Serie C on Sep 03 and 2-2 at home with Folgore Caratese in the league. A 1-0 loss at Juventus U23 and a 2-1 friendly loss at Virtus Entella were offset by a 1-0 cup win at Alcione.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record between these two sides favors Renate. In their last six meetings, Renate has won 3, Novara has won 1, and there have been 2 draws. The most recent match was on Mar 28, 2026, when Renate beat Novara 3-1 at home. Before that, Renate won 1-0 away on Nov 23, 2025. Novara's only win in this stretch came on Feb 23, 2025, a 1-0 home victory. The other two matches ended 1-1, on Mar 06, 2024 and Oct 23, 2019.

League Table Positions

Neither Renate nor Novara appears in the top 12 of the current Serie C standings provided. The table is led by Dolomiti Bellunesi with 7 points from 3 games. With both teams absent from the early-season top spots, this match is a chance for either side to climb the table.

Win Probability: Renate or Novara?

We calculate the win probability for this Renate vs Novara prediction using the available odds and recent data. The average bookmaker odds imply a 48% chance for a Renate win, a 26% chance for a draw, and a 26% chance for a Novara win. Renate's strong head-to-head record - 3 wins in the last 6 - supports their favorite status, but their poor recent form (three losses in five) adds risk. Novara's two straight draws show they can be hard to beat. The home advantage for Renate and the H2H edge tip the scales, making Renate the more likely winner, but a draw is a very real possibility.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see this as a close match. The 1X2 odds range from 2.10 to 2.30 for a Renate home win, 1.91 to 2.72 for the draw, and 2.96 to 3.80 for a Novara away win. The best home win price is 2.30, the best draw is 2.72, and the best away win is 3.80. Based on the stats, Renate's H2H dominance gives them the edge, but their shaky form makes the draw a value pick. Our Renate vs Novara prediction is a narrow home win or a draw, with under 2.5 total goals looking likely given both teams' recent scoring struggles.