Okinawa SV - Tiamo Hirakata prediction 21/09/2026

Our Okinawa SV vs Tiamo Hirakata prediction for the J4 League match on September 21, 2026, points to a tight contest. Based on the stats, Okinawa SV has a 38% chance of winning, the draw is at 27%, and Tiamo Hirakata has a 35% chance. The match kicks off at 06:00, and bookmakers see it as a very close call.

Team Form

Okinawa SV come into this match with a solid recent run of W, D, L, W, W in their last five games. Their most recent outing was a strong 4-1 away win against ReinMeer Aomori FC on Sep 12. Before that, they drew 1-1 at Minebea Mitsumi/Honda Lock and lost 1-2 at home to Azul Claro Numazu FC. They have shown they can score goals, netting 4 in two of those last five matches.

Tiamo Hirakata's form reads W, L, L, L, D. They won their last match 3-2 away at Veertien MIE on Sep 12, which stopped a losing streak. Prior to that, they suffered a 1-3 home loss to Maruyasu Okazaki and a 0-1 away defeat at YSCC Yokohama. Their recent form has been inconsistent, with defensive issues in several games.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record between these two teams shows Tiamo Hirakata with the edge. In the last 5 meetings, Tiamo Hirakata have 3 wins, Okinawa SV have 1 win, and there have been 2 draws. The most recent clash was on Mar 22, 2026, in the League Cup, where Tiamo Hirakata won 3-1 at home. Before that, in the J4 League on Nov 16, 2025, Tiamo Hirakata beat Okinawa SV 3-0 away. Okinawa SV's last win in this fixture was a 1-0 away victory back in the J3 League on Sep 17, 2023.

League Table Positions

In the J4 League standings, Tiamo Hirakata sit 5th with 47 points from 29 games, having scored 53 goals and conceded 41. Okinawa SV are 7th with 43 points from 29 games, with 39 goals scored and 35 conceded. At home, Okinawa SV have 23 points from 15 games (7 wins, 2 draws, 6 losses). Tiamo Hirakata's away form has earned them 19 points from 15 games (5 wins, 4 draws, 6 losses). The table shows Tiamo Hirakata are slightly better overall, but Okinawa SV have a small home advantage.

Win Probability: Okinawa SV or Tiamo Hirakata?

We calculate the win probability for this match based on odds, form, and head-to-head stats. The average bookmaker odds imply a close game: home win around 2.44, draw around 2.43, away win around 2.98. Removing the margin, the true probabilities are roughly 38% for an Okinawa SV win, 27% for a draw, and 35% for a Tiamo Hirakata win. Okinawa SV's stronger recent form and home advantage give them a slight edge, but Tiamo Hirakata's superior head-to-head record and higher league position balance it out. The most likely outcome is a narrow win for the home side, but a draw is a very real possibility.

Odds & Match Prediction

The 1X2 odds from various bookmakers show a tight market. The best home win odds are 2.56, the draw is offered at a low of 2.15, and an away win is up to 3.10. These odds reflect how close this match is expected to be. Our Okinawa SV vs Tiamo Hirakata prediction is that this will be a low-scoring affair. Based on the stats, the value might be in the draw, but Okinawa SV's home form gives them a slight nod. A 1-1 or 2-1 result looks probable.