Santos SP - Palmeiras SP prediction 28/10/2026

Santos SP vs Palmeiras SP prediction for the Cup match on Sep 03, 2026. Based on odds and recent form, Palmeiras SP is the favorite with a 40% chance to win, while Santos SP has 25% and the draw is at 35%.

Team Form

Santos SP comes into this game with mixed results. Their last five matches: a 3-0 loss to Palmeiras SP (Cup), a 1-1 draw with Mirassol SP (Serie A), a 0-0 draw away at Macara (Copa Sudamericana), a 3-0 win away at Vasco da Gama RJ (Serie A), and a 2-1 home win over Macara (Copa Sudamericana). That form line reads L, D, D, W, W.

Palmeiras SP, on the other hand, has been in strong form. Their last five: a 3-0 win over Santos SP (Cup), a 4-1 home win over Vasco da Gama RJ (Serie A), a 1-0 away win at Cerro Porteno (Copa Libertadores), a 3-2 away loss to Fluminense RJ (Serie A), and a 1-1 home draw with Cerro Porteno (Copa Libertadores). Their form line is W, W, W, L, D. Palmeiras SP has won three of their last five, showing better consistency.

Head-to-Head Record

In the overall head-to-head between these two Brazilian sides, Palmeiras SP leads with 15 wins to Santos SP's 11, along with 9 draws. The last five meetings tell a similar story: Palmeiras SP won three, Santos SP won one, and one ended in a draw. The most recent clash was a Cup match on Aug 27, 2026, where Palmeiras SP beat Santos SP 3-0 at home. Before that, on May 02, 2026, they drew 1-1 in Serie A. Palmeiras SP also won 1-0 in the Campeonato Paulista in January 2026. Santos SP's only recent win came at home in November 2025, a 1-0 Serie A victory.

Win Probability: Santos SP or Palmeiras SP?

We calculated the win probability using bookmaker odds as a base, then adjusted for team form and head-to-head stats. The numbers: Santos SP has a 25% chance to win, the draw sits at 35%, and Palmeiras SP has a 40% chance. The odds market initially pointed to a very tight match, with one bookmaker even offering a draw as low as 1.11, but the overall average implied probabilities gave the draw a slight edge. However, Palmeiras SP's superior recent form and their dominance in recent head-to-head meetings push them into the favorite spot. Santos SP's home advantage at Estádio Urbano Caldeira is a factor, but they have lost their last two home matches against Palmeiras SP. So, the question "who will win" leans toward Palmeiras SP, but a draw is a very real possibility.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers have set the following 1X2 odds for this Cup fixture: home win (Santos SP) between 3.10 and 3.40, draw between 1.11 and 3.40, and away win (Palmeiras SP) between 2.05 and 2.62. The wide range on the draw shows some disagreement, but the best available odds for a Palmeiras SP win are around 2.05, making them the marginal favorite. Our betting tips point to Palmeiras SP as the more likely winner, but the value might lie in the draw market given the historical frequency of stalemates between these teams. Based on the stats, the match outcome prediction is a tight contest, with Palmeiras SP having the edge to win, but a low-scoring draw cannot be ruled out.