Papua New Guinea - Solomon Islands prediction 30/09/2026

The Papua New Guinea vs Solomon Islands prediction for this Friendly International match on Sep 30 at 01:00 is a tight contest. Based on the odds, recent form and head-to-head record, Papua New Guinea has a 45% chance of winning, the draw is at 28%, and Solomon Islands has a 27% chance.

Team Form

Papua New Guinea come into this match with a mixed run of results. Their last five matches show three wins and two losses. They lost 2-0 away to Fiji on Sep 27 and 2-1 at home to New Caledonia on Sep 24. Before that, they had a three-match winning streak, beating Vanuatu 2-1 at home on Sep 17, Vanuatu 2-1 away on Dec 21, 2024, and Solomon Islands 3-2 away on Dec 18, 2024.

Solomon Islands have struggled for consistency. Their last five results are two draws, one win and two losses. They drew 3-3 at home with Vanuatu on Sep 24, won 2-0 away against New Caledonia on Sep 21, and drew 3-3 away to Fiji on Sep 18. The two losses were a 4-2 defeat away to St. Kitts and Nevis on Mar 30 and a heavy 10-2 home loss to Bulgaria on Mar 27.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record between these two teams is short. They have met once before, on Dec 18, 2024, in a Friendly International. That match ended in a 3-2 away win for Papua New Guinea. Solomon Islands have never beaten Papua New Guinea, and there have been no draws.

League Table Positions

This is a Friendly International match, so there is no league table data available. Both teams will use this game to test tactics and build momentum.

Win Probability: Papua New Guinea or Solomon Islands?

We calculate the win probability based on the odds, recent form and head-to-head record. The bookmakers' average odds imply a tight match. After removing the margin and adjusting for Papua New Guinea's better head-to-head record and slightly stronger recent form, Papua New Guinea has a 45% chance to win. The draw has a 28% probability, and Solomon Islands has a 27% chance. Papua New Guinea is the more likely winner, but the match is far from one-sided.

Odds & Match Prediction

The available 1X2 odds show a range of prices. The best home win odds for Papua New Guinea are 3.17, the draw is as low as 2.05, and an away win for Solomon Islands is priced at 2.39 at the shortest. The odds suggest bookmakers see this as a very open match, with the draw and away win both attracting support. Our Papua New Guinea vs Solomon Islands prediction is that the home side has a slight edge, but a draw is a real possibility. Based on the stats, a bet on Papua New Guinea or the draw offers value.