Felgueiras - Penafiel prediction 12/09/2026

The Felgueiras vs Penafiel prediction for the Segunda Liga match on Sep 12, 2026, points to a tight contest with Penafiel holding a slight edge. Based on the latest form, head-to-head record, and bookmaker odds, Penafiel has a 47% chance of winning, while Felgueiras has a 28% chance, and the draw is at 25%.

Team Form

Felgueiras comes into this match with a mixed run of results. In their last five games, they have one win, three draws, and one loss. Their most recent outing was a 1-0 away defeat to Vizela on Sep 06. Before that, they beat Chaves 2-1 at home and drew 1-1 with Farense and Avs Futebol Sad. They also drew 0-0 with CB Feirense. Scoring four goals and conceding four in this period shows a balanced but not dominant side.

Penafiel, on the other hand, has been in strong form with three wins, one draw, and one loss in their last five matches. They beat Academica Coimbra 4-1 at home on Sep 05, won 3-0 away at Porto B, and defeated Sporting Lisbon B 2-0. A 2-2 draw at SCU Torreense and a 0-1 home loss to Portimonense complete their recent record. With 11 goals scored and 4 conceded, their attack looks sharp.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record between Felgueiras and Penafiel shows a slight advantage for the away side. In their last four meetings, Penafiel has won twice, Felgueiras once, and there has been one draw. The most recent match on Feb 22, 2026, ended in a 0-0 draw at Felgueiras. Before that, Penafiel won 2-0 at home on Sep 27, 2025, and 2-1 at home on Nov 09, 2024. Felgueiras won 1-0 at home on Apr 05, 2025.

League Table Positions

In the Segunda Liga standings, Penafiel sits in 2nd place with 10 points from 5 matches, having won 3, drawn 1, and lost 1. They have scored 11 goals and conceded only 4. Felgueiras is in 11th place with 6 points from 5 games, with 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss. They have scored 4 and conceded 4. The gap in points and goal difference highlights Penafiel's stronger start to the season.

Win Probability: Felgueiras or Penafiel?

Who will win this match? Based on the available data, Penafiel has a 47% chance of winning, the draw is at 25%, and Felgueiras has a 28% chance. These win probabilities are calculated using the inverse of the bookmaker odds, adjusted for recent form and league positions. The odds imply a tight match, but Penafiel's superior form - three wins in five - and higher league rank give them the edge. Felgueiras has home advantage, but their three draws in five games suggest they struggle to close out matches.

Odds & Match Prediction

The latest odds for this Segunda Liga match show Felgueiras at 2.98, the draw at 2.00, and Penafiel at 3.40. Some bookmakers have Felgueiras at 2.90. These betting tips reflect a market that sees the draw as a real possibility, with Penafiel slightly undervalued given their form. Our Felgueiras vs Penafiel prediction is that Penafiel is the more likely winner, but a draw is a strong second option. Based on the stats, a low-scoring game is possible, with both teams showing defensive solidity in recent head-to-head matches.