Karvan - PFK Simurq Zaqatala prediction 16/09/2026

The Karvan vs PFK Simurq Zaqatala prediction for September 16, 2026, in the Azerbaijan 1 Division points to a tight match where the home side holds a slight edge. Based on the latest odds and team form, Karvan has a 52% win probability, the draw is at 26%, and PFK Simurq Zaqatala has a 22% chance. This betting preview breaks down all the key stats you need.

Team Form

Karvan's recent form is mixed, with results reading L, W, D, L, L across their last five matches. They lost 2-0 away to Sahdag on Sep 09, but secured a solid 3-0 win at Baku Sporting on Sep 03. Before that, they drew 1-1 with FK MKT Araz Imisli and suffered two narrow defeats in the Premyer Liqa. PFK Simurq Zaqatala comes into this game with a similar pattern: W, D, W, L, L. They beat Baku Sporting 3-0 at home on Sep 10 and drew 2-2 at Energetik Mingechevir on Sep 04. Their last two matches of the previous campaign were a 2-1 win over Safa Baku and a 3-0 loss at Baku Sporting.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record between these two teams is very balanced. In the last five meetings, PFK Simurq Zaqatala has won twice, Karvan has won once, and two matches ended in draws. The most recent clash was on May 9, 2025, when PFK Simurq Zaqatala won 3-0 at home. Earlier that year, on March 7, 2025, Karvan won 3-2 at home. The two matches in 2024 and 2023 both finished level, with a 2-2 draw in December 2024 and a 2-2 draw in the Reserve league in October 2023. The only other result was a 2-0 away win for PFK Simurq Zaqatala in December 2023.

League Table Positions

In the 1 Division standings, PFK Simurq Zaqatala sits in 3rd place with 4 points from 2 matches, scoring 5 goals and conceding 2. Karvan is 5th with 3 points from 2 games, scoring 3 and conceding 2. At home, Karvan has yet to play a match this season, while PFK Simurq Zaqatala has 1 point from 1 away game, with a 2-2 draw. The table shows a very early-season picture, but PFK Simurq Zaqatala's unbeaten start gives them a slight statistical advantage.

Win Probability: Karvan or PFK Simurq Zaqatala?

After analyzing the odds, form, and head-to-head stats, we calculate the win probability as follows: Karvan has a 52% chance of winning, the draw is at 26%, and PFK Simurq Zaqatala has a 22% chance. The bookmakers' average implied odds give Karvan a clear favorite status, and we have adjusted this slightly upward due to their home advantage, even though they have not played at home yet this season. The head-to-head record is close, but Karvan's last home win against this opponent and the odds trend support the home win probability.

Odds & Match Prediction

The available 1X2 odds show Karvan as the favorite. The best home win odds are around 1.58, with some bookmakers offering as low as 1.47. The draw is priced between 2.35 and 4.12, and an away win for PFK Simurq Zaqatala ranges from 4.75 to 5.76. Based on the stats, the Karvan vs PFK Simurq Zaqatala prediction is a home win, but the value may lie in the draw given the history of tight matches between these sides. Bookmakers see Karvan as the likely winner, and our analysis agrees, though a low-scoring game is expected.