Podhale Nowy Targ - Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki prediction 01/09/2026

The match between Podhale Nowy Targ and Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki on Sep 01, 2026, in the Poland Cup, is a clash between a II Liga side and a I Liga team. Our Podhale Nowy Targ vs Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki prediction gives the visitors a 45% chance to win, with the draw at 30% and the home side at 25%.

Team Form

Podhale Nowy Targ come into this cup tie with a mixed record: W, D, L, L, W in their last five matches. Their most recent result was a 3-1 away win against Olimpia Grudziadz on Aug 29, which will boost confidence. Before that, they drew 1-1 at home with Resovia Rzeszow and suffered heavy defeats to Gornik Leczna (5-2) and Hutnik Krakow (5-2).

Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki are unbeaten in five games: D, D, D, W, W. They drew 2-2 at home with Bruk-Bet Termalica Nieciecza on Aug 28, and previously drew 2-2 away at Polonia Bytom and 1-1 at home with Stal Rzeszow. Their two wins came against Miedz Legnica (1-0 away) and Puszcza Niepolomice (1-0 at home). This solid run shows a team hard to beat.

Head-to-Head Record

There is no head-to-head record between Podhale Nowy Targ and Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki. This will be the first meeting between the two sides, so no historical data can influence the prediction.

League Table Positions

Podhale Nowy Targ compete in the II Liga, while Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki play in the I Liga - one division higher. Although exact table positions are not available, the league gap suggests Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki face a lower level of opposition on paper, which is a key factor in our Podhale Nowy Targ vs Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki prediction.

Win Probability: Podhale Nowy Targ or Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki?

After analyzing the odds, form, and league difference, we calculate the win probability as follows: Podhale Nowy Targ 25%, draw 30%, Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki 45%. The away side is the clear favorite. The odds market (average 2.48 for an away win) already points to Pogon, and their unbeaten run in a higher division reinforces that. Podhale Nowy Targ have home advantage and a recent win, but their defensive record - conceding 5 goals twice in recent weeks - is a concern. Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki have kept two clean sheets in their last five and are more consistent. Therefore, the question "who will win" leans strongly toward the visitors.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers offer average odds of 2.75 for a Podhale Nowy Targ win, 2.74 for the draw, and 2.48 for a Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki victory. These odds confirm Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki as the favorite. Based on the stats, our final Podhale Nowy Targ vs Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki prediction is an away win, but the draw is a realistic possibility given Pogon's three recent stalemates. For betting tips, backing Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki to win or the draw no bet market could offer value.