Pogon Szczecin - Wisla Plock prediction 07/09/2026

The Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Plock prediction for September 7, 2026 gives the home side a clear edge. This Ekstraklasa match at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera kicks off at 18:30. Based on the latest odds, team form, and head-to-head record, Pogon Szczecin has a 52% win probability, the draw sits at 28%, and Wisla Plock has a 20% chance.

Team Form

Pogon Szczecin's recent form has been steady but unspectacular. Their last five results read L, D, D, D, W. A 3-1 home win over Motor Lublin on August 8 was followed by three straight draws - 0-0 at Jagiellonia Bialystok, 2-2 at home to Wisla Krakow, and 0-0 at Zaglebie Lubin. A 2-1 cup loss at Slask Wroclaw on September 3 broke that unbeaten league run.

Wisla Plock's form is more concerning. Their last five results are W, L, L, L, D. A 0-0 home draw with Widzew Lodz on July 31 was followed by three straight league defeats - 2-1 at Wisla Krakow, 5-0 at GKS Katowice, and 0-2 at home to Korona Kielce. They did win 3-2 at KTS-K Luzino in the cup on September 2, but their league form is poor.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record between these teams is perfectly balanced. In their last three meetings, each side has one win and there has been one draw. The most recent clash was on May 3, 2026, when Pogon Szczecin won 3-0 at home. Before that, Wisla Plock won 2-0 at home on November 3, 2025. A cup match in November 2020 ended 1-1. The home team has won the last two league meetings, which is a positive sign for Pogon Szczecin.

League Table Positions

Pogon Szczecin sits 9th in the Ekstraklasa overall table with 8 points from 5 matches, having won 2, drawn 2, and lost 1. They have scored 7 goals and conceded only 4. Their away form is particularly strong - unbeaten in two matches with 4 points and no goals conceded. Wisla Plock is not visible in the top 12 of the provided standings, suggesting they are lower in the table. Pogon Szczecin's solid defensive record gives them a foundation to control this match.

Win Probability: Pogon Szczecin or Wisla Plock?

Our win probability calculation starts with the bookmaker odds. The best available odds are 2.25 for a Pogon Szczecin win, 2.25 for a draw, and 3.70 for a Wisla Plock away win. Converting these to implied probabilities and removing the bookmaker margin gives a baseline. We then adjust for Pogon Szczecin's home advantage, their better league position, and Wisla Plock's poor recent league form - three straight defeats with 8 goals conceded. The final numbers: Pogon Szczecin has a 52% chance of winning, the draw is at 28%, and Wisla Plock has a 20% chance. Pogon Szczecin is the more likely winner.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see this as a tight match. The average 1X2 odds across six bookmakers show Pogon Szczecin around 2.09, the draw around 2.28, and Wisla Plock around 3.70. The odds imply Pogon Szczecin is the favorite, but the draw odds are also short, reflecting the hosts' recent run of stalemates. Our Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Plock prediction is a home win, but a low-scoring match is likely. Based on the stats, a 1-0 or 2-0 scoreline for Pogon Szczecin looks the most probable outcome.