Match info
- Competição
- UEFA Nations League · Europe
- Início
- Estádio
- Stadion Wrocław, Wrocław
- Capacidade
- 45.105
- Gramado
- grass
Forma recente
últimos 5 jogos
PolandBosnia-HerzegovinaPoland10DUEFA Nations League
PolandRomania60VUEFA Nations League
SwedenPoland31DUEFA Nations League
PolandBosnia-Herzegovina00EUEFA Nations League
PolandNigeria22EFriendly International
SwedenRomaniaSweden01VUEFA Nations League
Bosnia-HerzegovinaSweden11EUEFA Nations League
SwedenPoland31VUEFA Nations League
SwedenRomania21VUEFA Nations League
FranceSweden30DWorld Cup
Confronto direto
3 confrontosSwedenPoland31UEFA Nations League
SwedenPoland32World Cup Qualification Play Off
PolandSweden20World Cup
UEFA Nations League 2026 · classificação
| # | Time | J | V | E | D | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Portugal | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9:4 | 12 |
| 2 |  Montenegro | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7:4 | 10 |
| 3 |  France | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7:2 | 10 |
| 4 | Sweden | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7:3 | 10 |
| 5 |  Switzerland | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8:1 | 9 |
| 6 |  Spain | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10:4 | 9 |
| 7 |  Netherlands | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7:5 | 8 |
| 8 |  Northern Ireland | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4:0 | 8 |
| 9 |  Austria | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 9:5 | 8 |
| 10 |  Bosnia-Herzegovina | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6:3 | 8 |
| 11 |  Greece | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5:3 | 8 |
| 12 |  Finland | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9:1 | 7 |
| 13 |  Malta | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4:2 | 7 |
| 14 |  Iceland | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7:1 | 7 |
| 15 |  Slovakia | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5:2 | 7 |
| 16 |  Cyprus | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5:3 | 7 |
| 17 |  Italy | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8:5 | 7 |
| 18 |  Hungary | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3:2 | 7 |
| 19 |  England | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 11:3 | 6 |
| 20 |  Denmark | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7:7 | 6 |
| 21 |  Albania | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6:2 | 6 |
| 22 |  Belgium | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6:5 | 6 |
| 23 |  Azerbaijan | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2:1 | 5 |
| 24 |  Estonia | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2:1 | 5 |
| 25 |  Kosovo | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3:4 | 5 |
| 26 |  Germany | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3:2 | 5 |
| 27 |  Ireland | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6:4 | 5 |
| 28 |  Slovenia | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3:2 | 4 |
| 29 |  Lithuania | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3:2 | 4 |
| 30 |  Faroe Islands | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 5:5 | 4 |
| 31 |  Armenia | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4:5 | 4 |
| 32 |  Belarus | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4:2 | 4 |
| 33 |  Scotland | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2:3 | 4 |
| 34 |  Moldova | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3:4 | 4 |
| 35 | Poland | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7:4 | 4 |
| 36 |  Ukraine | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2:5 | 4 |
| 37 |  Luxembourg | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2:5 | 3 |
| 38 |  Croatia | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3:12 | 3 |
| 39 |  Wales | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2:5 | 3 |
| 40 |  Norway | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6:8 | 3 |
| 41 |  Gibraltar | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1:1 | 2 |
| 42 |  Kazakhstan | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5:7 | 2 |
| 43 |  Georgia | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0:2 | 2 |
| 44 |  Israel | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2:7 | 2 |
| 45 |  Liechtenstein | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0:2 | 1 |
| 46 |  Andorra | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1:3 | 1 |
| 47 |  Latvia | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2:6 | 1 |
| 48 |  Bulgaria | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1:5 | 1 |
| 49 |  North Macedonia | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0:7 | 0 |
| 50 |  San Marino | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0:14 | 0 |
| 51 |  Serbia | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3:8 | 0 |
| 52 |  Czech Republic | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2:7 | 0 |
| 53 |  Romania | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3:13 | 0 |
| 54 |  Turkey | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2:11 | 0 |
Sweden vs Poland prediction: the UEFA Nations League match on Sep 28, 2026, at Strawberry Arena in Stockholm puts Sweden as the favorite. Based on odds, recent form and head-to-head record, Sweden has a 45% win probability, while Poland has a 23% chance. The draw sits at 32%.
Team Form
Sweden comes into this game with a mixed run of results: W, L, D, L, W in their last five. They beat Romania 2-1 at home in their most recent UEFA Nations League outing, but suffered a heavy 5-1 loss to Netherlands and a 3-0 defeat to France during the World Cup. A 1-1 draw with Japan and a 5-1 win over Tunisia complete the picture.
Poland's form is weaker: D, D, L, L, W. They drew 0-0 with Bosnia-Herzegovina and 2-2 with Nigeria in friendlies, lost 2-0 to Ukraine and 3-2 to Sweden in the World Cup Qualification Play Off, and beat Albania 2-1. Poland has not won in four of their last five matches.
Head-to-Head Record
These teams have met twice in recent years. Sweden won the most recent clash 3-2 on Mar 31, 2026, in a World Cup Qualification Play Off. Poland won the earlier match 2-0 on Mar 29, 2022, in the World Cup. The head-to-head record is even at one win each, with no draws.
League Table Positions
In the UEFA Nations League standings, Sweden sits 11th overall with 3 points from one match (one win, 2 goals scored, 1 conceded). Poland does not appear in the table yet, as they have not played a match in this competition. Sweden's early win gives them a clear advantage in the group.
Win Probability: Sweden or Poland?
After normalizing the bookmaker odds and adjusting for form and home advantage, the win probability breaks down as follows: Sweden 45%, draw 32%, Poland 23%. Sweden's home record, their recent 2-1 win over Romania, and Poland's poor away form all point toward a home victory. The odds imply Sweden is the clear favorite, and the stats back that up.
Odds & Match Prediction
Bookmakers offer average odds around 2.00 for a Sweden win, 2.72 for the draw, and 3.63 for a Poland win. The best home odds are as low as 1.85, while the draw reaches up to 3.86 at some books. Based on the stats, Sweden is the more likely winner, but the draw cannot be ruled out given Poland's ability to grind out results. Our Sweden vs Poland prediction is a home win, with a 45% probability.