Polonia Warszawa - Polonia Bytom prediction 11/09/2026

Polonia Warszawa vs Polonia Bytom prediction for the I Liga match on Sep 11 at 16:00. Based on the stats, Polonia Warszawa is the favorite with a 52% win probability, while the draw sits at 27% and Polonia Bytom has a 21% chance.

Team Form

Polonia Warszawa comes into this match with a mixed run of results. Their last five games show two wins and three losses (L, W, L, W, L). In their most recent match, they lost 2-1 away to Stal Rzeszow on Sep 05. Before that, they beat Gornik Polkowice 1-0 in the Cup. At home, they suffered a 4-2 defeat against Lechia Gdansk on Aug 29. Away from home, they have been inconsistent, with wins over Bruk-Bet Termalica Nieciecza (3-1) and a loss to Pogon Siedlce (1-0).

Polonia Bytom's recent form is poor, with no wins in their last five outings (D, D, L, D, L). They drew 1-1 away at Arka Gdynia on Aug 30, and played a 2-2 home draw against Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki on Aug 22. A heavy 5-2 loss at Stal Mielec on Aug 16 highlights their defensive issues. Their last two home games ended in 2-2 draws against Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki and Pogon Siedlce.

Head-to-Head Record

In the head-to-head record between Polonia Warszawa and Polonia Bytom, each team has one win. The most recent meeting was on May 04, when Polonia Bytom won 3-2 at home. Earlier, on Oct 25, 2025, Polonia Warszawa secured a 2-1 home victory. There have been no draws in their last two encounters.

League Table Positions

In the I Liga standings, Polonia Warszawa sits 6th with 10 points from 7 matches (3 wins, 1 draw, 3 losses). They have scored 11 goals and conceded 10. Polonia Bytom is not in the top 12 of the overall table, but their home record shows them in 8th place with 6 points from 4 home games (1 win, 3 draws, 0 losses). Away from home, Polonia Warszawa is 5th with 6 points from 4 away matches (2 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses).

Win Probability: Polonia Warszawa or Polonia Bytom?

After analyzing the odds, team form, head-to-head record and league positions, we calculate the win probability as follows: Polonia Warszawa has a 52% chance to win, the draw is at 27%, and Polonia Bytom has a 21% chance. The odds imply a home advantage for Polonia Warszawa, and their slightly better league position and head-to-head home win support this. Polonia Bytom's winless run of five matches lowers their chances. The most likely outcome is a Polonia Warszawa win, but a draw is also a real possibility given Polonia Bytom's three draws in their last five games.

Odds & Match Prediction

The available odds for this match show Polonia Warszawa as the favorite. One bookmaker offers a home win at 1.78, a draw at 2.42, and an away win at 3.70. Another lists the home win at 1.75, the draw at 2.50, and the away win at 3.75. Based on the stats, bookmakers see Polonia Warszawa as the likely winner. Our Polonia Warszawa vs Polonia Bytom prediction is a home win, but the betting tips suggest the draw is a value option considering Polonia Bytom's recent string of draws.