Portimonense - Tondela prediction 12/09/2026

This Portimonense vs Tondela prediction looks at the Segunda Liga match on Sep 12 at 10:00. Based on the latest odds, form, and head-to-head record, Tondela enters as the slight favorite with a 41% win probability, while Portimonense has a 35% chance and the draw sits at 24%. The bookmakers see this as a tight contest, and the stats back that up.

Team Form

Portimonense's recent form has been mixed. In their last five matches across all competitions, they recorded two wins, one draw, and two losses. Their most recent Segunda Liga outing was a 2-0 home defeat to Leixoes on Aug 29. Before that, they drew 1-1 away at Benfica B and beat Vizela 2-0 at home. They sit 9th in the overall league table with 7 points from 5 games, scoring 4 and conceding 4.

Tondela has also had an up-and-down run, with two wins and three losses in their last five. They are coming off a strong 3-0 home win against Porto B on Sep 05. However, away form is a concern - they lost 2-0 at Uniao Leiria and 1-0 at Leixoes in their last two road trips. Tondela is 12th overall with 6 points, but their home record is solid with 6 points from 3 games. Away from home, they have yet to pick up a point this season.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head between Portimonense and Tondela is perfectly balanced. In 17 previous meetings, both sides have 7 wins each and 3 draws. The most recent clash was a 2-2 draw on Apr 27, 2025, in the Segunda Liga. Before that, Tondela won 2-0 at home in December 2024. The last time Portimonense beat Tondela was a 3-0 away victory back in August 2021. Recent history shows Tondela has had the upper hand, unbeaten in the last two encounters.

League Table Positions

In the Segunda Liga standings, Portimonense is 9th with 7 points, while Tondela is 12th with 6 points. The gap is just one point, but the home and away splits tell a different story. Portimonense has struggled at home, with only one win from two league games. Tondela's away form is poor - zero points from two away matches, with no goals scored and three conceded. This match pits a weak home side against a weak away side, making the outcome hard to call.

Win Probability: Portimonense or Tondela?

We calculate the win probability based on the betting odds, adjusted for team form and league positions. The average odds imply a 26% chance for a Portimonense win, a 48% chance for the draw, and a 39% chance for a Tondela win. After removing the bookmaker margin and factoring in Portimonense's home advantage and Tondela's poor away record, we arrive at: Portimonense win 35%, draw 24%, Tondela win 41%. Tondela is the more likely winner, but it is a close call. The draw is a real possibility given both teams' inconsistent form.

Odds & Match Prediction

The best available odds for this Segunda Liga match are: Portimonense win at 3.80, draw at 2.08, and Tondela win at 2.58. Bookmakers see the draw as the most probable single result, which is unusual and reflects how evenly matched these teams are. Our Portimonense vs Tondela prediction is a narrow away win for Tondela, but with low confidence. A bet on Tondela to win offers value at 2.58, while the draw at 2.08 is the safer pick based on the stats. Both teams to score is also worth considering - Portimonense has scored in three of their last five, and Tondela found the net three times in their last match.