PSS Sleman - Madura United prediction 12/09/2026

The PSS Sleman vs Madura United prediction for September 12, 2026, in Liga 1 points to a very balanced match. Based on the odds, recent form and head-to-head record, Madura United is the slight favorite with a 35% win probability, while a draw is also at 35% and PSS Sleman has a 30% chance.

Team Form

PSS Sleman comes into this match with inconsistent results. Their last five outings show one win, three draws and one loss (L, D, D, W, D). The most recent match was a 2-1 away defeat against Bali United Persisam on September 4. At home, they managed a 3-0 win over PSIS Semarang in early May, but also drew 2-2 with Garudayaksa twice.

Madura United, on the other hand, has been more convincing. Their last five matches include three wins and two losses (W, W, W, L, L). They won their last Liga 1 fixture 2-0 at home against Persijap Jepara on September 6. Away from home, they beat Borneo Samarinda 3-1 in a friendly, but lost their last two away league games in May. The form edge goes to Madura United.

Head-to-Head Record

In the last five meetings between these two teams, PSS Sleman has won twice, Madura United once, and there have been two draws. The most recent clash on May 24, 2025, saw PSS Sleman win 3-0 away at Madura United. Before that, PSS Sleman also won 4-0 at home in December 2024. The head-to-head record slightly favors PSS Sleman, but the overall trend is mixed.

League Table Positions

Only one match has been played in the 2026 Liga 1 season so far. Madura United sits in 3rd place with 3 points and a goal difference of +2 after a 2-0 win. PSS Sleman is not in the top 12 of the early standings, indicating they are lower down the table. This gives Madura United a positional advantage, though the sample size is very small.

Win Probability: PSS Sleman or Madura United?

We calculated the win probability using the latest odds, team form, head-to-head stats and league positions. The bookmakers' odds imply a draw is the most likely outcome, but after adjusting for Madura United's better form and higher table position, we see a very tight contest. The final probabilities are: PSS Sleman win 30%, draw 35%, Madura United win 35%. So Madura United is the narrow favorite to win this match.

Odds & Match Prediction

The best available odds for this match are: home win 2.70, draw 2.20, away win 2.88. Bookmakers see the draw as the most probable result, but the odds are close across all three outcomes. Based on the stats, our PSS Sleman vs Madura United prediction is a draw or a narrow away win. Madura United's recent form gives them a slight edge, but PSS Sleman's home advantage and positive H2H record cannot be ignored. A low-scoring match is likely, with under 2.5 goals a sensible betting tip.