Tristan Suarez - Quilmes prediction 03/10/2026

The Tristan Suarez vs Quilmes prediction for the Primera Nacional match on October 3, 2026, at 15:00 points to a tight contest. Based on our analysis, Tristan Suarez has a 35% chance of winning, a draw has 45%, and Quilmes has 20%. The bookmakers also see a draw as the most likely result, but Tristan Suarez arrives with better form and a higher position in the league table.

Team Form

Tristan Suarez is unbeaten in the last five matches, with two wins and three draws. They beat CA Ferrocarril Midland 1-0 away and San Martin Tucuman 2-0 at home, while drawing 0-0 against CA Atlanta, San Martin De San Juan, and Gimnasia y Tiro de Salta. The team has been solid defensively, conceding no goals in those three draws.

Quilmes has been inconsistent, with two wins and three losses in the same period. They won 2-0 at home against Club Atletico Guemes and 1-0 against San Martin De San Juan, but lost 3-0 away to Chacarita Juniors, 1-0 away to Nueva Chicago, and 1-0 at home to Temperley. The away form is a concern, with two defeats in the last two trips.

Head-to-Head Record

In the last six head-to-head meetings, Tristan Suarez won two, Quilmes won one, and three ended in a draw. The most recent clash was on May 17, 2026, when Tristan Suarez won 1-0 away at Quilmes. The previous away match for Tristan Suarez also ended 1-0, in October 2025. The last game at Tristan Suarez's ground was a 0-0 draw in May 2025. The H2H record clearly favors Tristan Suarez, who has not lost to Quilmes in the last three encounters.

League Table Positions

Tristan Suarez sits 3rd in the overall Primera Nacional standings with 54 points from 30 games (14 wins, 12 draws, 4 losses). They have scored 31 goals and conceded only 15, the best defensive record among the top teams. Quilmes is outside the top 12, which indicates a much lower position. In the away standings, Tristan Suarez is the 2nd best team with 24 points from 15 away matches (6 wins, 6 draws, 3 losses), showing they are strong on the road. This gives them an edge even when playing at home, where they are not in the top 8 but still hard to beat.

Win Probability: Tristan Suarez or Quilmes?

We calculated the win probability for this match using the odds, recent form, head-to-head record, and league positions. The numbers are: Tristan Suarez win 35%, draw 45%, Quilmes win 20%. The draw is the single most likely outcome, influenced by the low draw odds (around 1.78) and the defensive style of both teams. However, Tristan Suarez is more likely to win than Quilmes because of their unbeaten run, better H2H, and much higher league standing. Quilmes' poor away form also reduces their chances.

Odds & Match Prediction

The odds for the match are: Tristan Suarez win at 2.92, draw at 1.78, and Quilmes win at 4.15. Bookmakers see the draw as the favorite result, which matches our probability assessment. Our match prediction: the most probable outcome is a draw, but Tristan Suarez has a real chance to take all three points. A bet on Tristan Suarez to win could offer value based on the stats, but the safe pick is the draw. Always check the latest odds before placing any bet.