Racing Santander - Alaves prediction 12/09/2026

The Racing Santander vs Alaves prediction for the Primera match on Sep 12 at 12:00 is here. Alaves enters this game as the favorite with a 48% win probability, while Racing Santander has a 27% chance and the draw sits at 25%. The match takes place at Campos de Sport de El Sardinero in Santander.

Team Form

Racing Santander's recent form is mixed. In their last five matches they have one win, two draws, and two losses. They lost 3-2 away to Rayo Vallecano on Sep 05, beat Elche 3-2 at home on Aug 28, lost 1-0 away to Getafe on Aug 23, drew 2-2 at home with Villarreal on Aug 16, and drew 1-1 at home with Alaves in a Friendly Clubs match on Aug 07.

Alaves comes into this game in much stronger shape. Their last five results show three wins and two draws. They beat Villarreal 1-0 at home on Aug 28, drew 1-1 away at Rayo Vallecano on Aug 20, beat Getafe 3-0 at home on Aug 15, drew 1-1 away at Racing Santander in a Friendly Clubs match on Aug 07, and beat Castellon 3-0 at home in a Friendly Clubs match on Jul 31.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record between these two teams favors Alaves. In their last 8 meetings, Racing Santander has 0 wins, Alaves has 4 wins, and there have been 4 draws. The most recent match was a 1-1 draw in a Friendly Clubs game on Aug 07, 2026. Before that, Alaves won 2-1 away in a Friendly Clubs match on Jul 22, 2023, and 3-0 at home in a Segunda match on Jan 21, 2023. Racing Santander has not beaten Alaves in any of the recorded matches.

League Table Positions

In the Primera overall standings, Alaves is 2nd with 10 points from 4 matches (3 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses), scoring 10 goals and conceding 3. Racing Santander is 11th with 4 points from 4 matches (1 win, 1 draw, 2 losses), scoring 7 and conceding 8. At home, Racing Santander is 8th with 4 points from 2 games. Alaves has a perfect away record so far, sitting 1st in the home table with 9 points from 3 home games, but their away form is not listed separately in the standings. The gap in points and goal difference clearly favors Alaves.

Win Probability: Racing Santander or Alaves?

Based on the available data, here are the calculated win probabilities for this match: Racing Santander has a 27% chance to win, the draw is at 25%, and Alaves has a 48% chance to win. These percentages are derived from the bookmaker odds, which imply a home win around 39-43% before margin removal, but after adjusting for the strong away team form, the head-to-head record (0 Racing Santander wins in 8 matches), and the league table gap, Alaves' real chances are higher. The draw probability is supported by the 4 draws in 8 H2H meetings. Alaves is the clear favorite to win this game.

Odds & Match Prediction

The latest odds for the Racing Santander vs Alaves match show a home win at 2.30, a draw at 2.25, and an away win at 3.20. Earlier odds movements saw the home win drift from 2.54 to 2.30, while the draw shortened from 3.65 to 2.25. Based on the stats, Alaves is the more likely winner, but the odds on a draw are also attractive given the H2H history. Our match prediction is an Alaves win or a draw, with Alaves having the highest individual probability at 48%.