SE Paraty RJ - Rio de Janeiro RJ prediction 05/10/2026

The SE Paraty RJ vs Rio de Janeiro RJ prediction for October 5, 2026, points to an away win in the Campeonato Carioca. Serie B2. Based on the latest odds and team form, Rio de Janeiro RJ enters this match as the favorite with a 52% win probability. SE Paraty RJ has a 28% chance, and the draw sits at 20%.

Team Form

SE Paraty RJ is struggling badly. They have lost their last five matches in a row. In their most recent game on October 1, they fell 3-2 away to SE Buzios RJ. Before that, a 3-0 home loss to Paduano RJ on September 27 showed defensive problems. The team has conceded 17 goals in 6 league games, the worst record in the division.

Rio de Janeiro RJ has mixed form with one win, one draw, and three losses in their last five. They beat Barra Mansa RJ 2-0 at home on October 1, which was a solid result. However, away form is a concern - they lost 2-1 at Serra Macaense FC RJ on September 27 and 1-0 at Cardoso Moreira RJ on September 13. Still, their overall record of 7 goals scored and 7 conceded shows more balance than their opponents.

Head-to-Head Record

These teams have met only once before. On September 22, 2025, SE Paraty RJ won 2-0 at home against Rio de Janeiro RJ. That head-to-head result gives the home side some confidence, but current form suggests a different outcome this time. The single H2H match is not enough to override the big gap in league positions and recent performances.

League Table Positions

In the Campeonato Carioca. Serie B2 standings, Rio de Janeiro RJ sits in 8th place with 7 points from 6 matches (2 wins, 1 draw, 3 losses). SE Paraty RJ is bottom of the table in 12th with 0 points, having lost all 6 games. The home team has scored only 4 goals and conceded 17. Rio de Janeiro RJ's home form is decent with 2 wins from 3 at their own stadium, but this match is away. SE Paraty RJ's home record is not listed in the top 8, which means they have earned few or no points at home.

Win Probability: SE Paraty RJ or Rio de Janeiro RJ?

After analyzing the data, the win probability for this match is: SE Paraty RJ 28%, draw 20%, Rio de Janeiro RJ 52%. These numbers come from the bookmaker odds as a base, adjusted for the huge difference in league positions and recent form. The odds imply a close match, but SE Paraty RJ's five straight losses and last-place standing cannot be ignored. Rio de Janeiro RJ has a clear edge in quality and consistency, even if their away form is not perfect. The most likely match outcome is an away win.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers offer varied odds for this SE Paraty RJ vs Rio de Janeiro RJ prediction. The best available home win odds are 3.75, the draw is at 3.45, and an away win can be backed at 1.95. These betting tips reflect the market view that Rio de Janeiro RJ is the favorite. The odds suggest a tight contest, but the stats point to the visitors. Our prediction is a narrow win for Rio de Janeiro RJ, based on the form gap and league table positions. A bet on the away team offers value at odds close to 2.00.