AD Tarma - Sport Huancayo prediction 30/08/2026

AD Tarma vs Sport Huancayo prediction for the Primera Division match on Aug 30, 2026, at 18:15. Based on the stats, AD Tarma is the favorite with a 42% win probability, while Sport Huancayo has a 30% chance and the draw sits at 28%. The game will be played at Estadio Unión Tarma, and bookmakers see a tight contest.

Team Form

AD Tarma comes into this match with a poor run of results. Their last five games show two draws and three losses: a 5-1 defeat at Juan Pablo II, a 1-1 home draw with Alianza Atletico, a 1-1 draw at UTC Cajamarca, a 0-1 home loss to Deportivo Garcilaso and a 2-0 loss at Sport Boys. They have not won any of those five, scoring only 3 goals and conceding 10.

Sport Huancayo's recent form is slightly better. In their last five matches they have two wins, one draw and two losses: a 0-2 home loss to Cesar Vallejo Moquegua, a 4-1 defeat at Sporting Cristal, a 1-1 home draw with Los Chankas CYC, a 2-0 win at FC Cajamarca and a 2-0 home win over Atletico Grau. They have scored 6 goals and conceded 7 in that span.

Head-to-Head Record

The H2H record strongly favors AD Tarma. In the last nine meetings across all competitions, AD Tarma has won 6, Sport Huancayo has won 1, and 2 ended in draws. Looking at the most recent five clashes: AD Tarma won 1-0 away in March 2026, won 1-0 at home in August 2025, lost 2-1 away in March 2025, won 2-0 away in March 2024 and won 2-1 at home in September 2023. AD Tarma has kept a clean sheet in three of those five matches.

League Table Positions

The Primera Division table is yet to take shape, as no matches have been played so far this season. All teams, including AD Tarma and Sport Huancayo, currently sit on 0 points with identical records. Therefore, league positions offer no insight for this prediction.

Win Probability: AD Tarma or Sport Huancayo?

After analyzing the available data, we calculate the win probability as follows: AD Tarma has a 42% chance of winning, the draw is at 28%, and Sport Huancayo has a 30% chance. These percentages are based on the bookmaker odds (home 2.54, draw 3.33, away 2.79), adjusted for the dominant H2H record of AD Tarma and the slightly better recent form of Sport Huancayo. Home advantage at Estadio Unión Tarma also gives AD Tarma a small boost. The conclusion: AD Tarma is the more likely winner, but the match is far from one-sided.

Odds & Match Prediction

The best available odds for this match are: AD Tarma win at 2.54, draw at 3.33, and Sport Huancayo win at 2.79. These prices reflect a close contest, with the home side as a marginal favorite. Considering the H2H dominance and home field, our AD Tarma vs Sport Huancayo prediction leans toward a home win, but the low confidence in AD Tarma's current form makes the draw a real possibility. A 1-0 or 2-1 result for AD Tarma looks plausible based on the stats.