Swindon Town - Newport County prediction 22/09/2026

Our Swindon Town vs Newport County prediction for the EFL Trophy match on Sep 22 at 15:00 is here. Based on recent form, head-to-head record, and bookmaker odds, Swindon Town enters this match as the favorite with a 52% win probability. The draw sits at 24%, while Newport County has a 24% chance to win.

Team Form

Swindon Town's recent form has been mixed. In their last five matches, they have two wins and three losses. They beat Colchester United 3-1 on Sep 5 and Port Vale 3-1 on Sep 1, but lost to Salford City 1-0 on Sep 19, Crystal Palace U21 2-1 on Sep 15, and York City 4-0 on Sep 12. The team has shown they can score at home, but defensive issues have appeared in away games.

Newport County comes into this match without a win in their last five outings. They recorded three draws and two losses. The draws came against Accrington Stanley 0-0 on Sep 19, Fleetwood Town 1-1 on Sep 12, and Tranmere Rovers 2-2 on Aug 29. The losses were against Northampton Town 1-0 on Sep 5 and Salford City 2-1 on Sep 1. Newport County has struggled to turn draws into wins, which is a concern for their chances.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record between Swindon Town and Newport County shows a tight rivalry. In 28 meetings, Swindon Town has 14 wins, Newport County has 12 wins, and there have been 2 draws. The most recent match was on Feb 11, 2026, when Swindon Town won 2-0 at home. Before that, Swindon Town also won 1-0 away on Oct 4, 2025, and 2-1 away on Jan 24, 2025. Newport County's last win in this fixture was a 2-1 home victory on Feb 3, 2024. Swindon Town has won the last three encounters, giving them a clear psychological edge.

League Table Positions

Both teams compete in League 2, but this match is part of the EFL Trophy. The JSON data does not include current league table positions, so we focus on form and H2H for this Swindon Town vs Newport County prediction. The EFL Trophy often sees squad rotations, but the recent results suggest Swindon Town has better momentum at home.

Win Probability: Swindon Town or Newport County?

We calculate the win probability based on odds, form, and head-to-head. The average bookmaker odds imply a home win probability around 51-53% after removing the margin. Swindon Town's home form (two wins in last two home games) and the three-match winning streak against Newport County push the estimate slightly higher. Our final numbers: Swindon Town has a 52% chance of winning, the draw is at 24%, and Newport County has a 24% chance. The data clearly points to Swindon Town as the more likely winner.

Odds & Match Prediction

The odds for this match show Swindon Town as the favorite. The best home win odds are around 1.94, with other bookmakers offering 1.75 to 1.80. The draw is priced between 2.18 and 3.86, and an away win for Newport County is between 3.70 and 4.12. These betting tips are based on the stats: Swindon Town's strong H2H record and Newport County's winless run make the home win the most probable outcome. Our Swindon Town vs Newport County prediction is a home victory, but the odds suggest the match could be closer than the H2H implies.