San Jose Earthquakes II - Tacoma Defiance prediction 11/10/2026

San Jose Earthquakes II vs Tacoma Defiance prediction for the MLS Next Pro match on Sep 06, 2026. The home team, San Jose Earthquakes II, enters as the slight favorite with a 40% win probability, but the head-to-head record heavily favors Tacoma Defiance. This betting tips preview covers team form, odds, and the most likely match outcome.

Team Form

San Jose Earthquakes II comes into this match with a mixed recent record. In their last five games, they have one win, two draws, and two losses (W, L, D, L, D). Their most recent result was a 3-2 home win against Los Angeles II on Aug 31, 2026. Before that, they fell 1-0 away to Austin II and drew 1-1 away to Houston Dynamo II. At home, the team has been inconsistent, with a win and a loss in their last two home matches.

Tacoma Defiance has also shown inconsistency. Their last five results are two wins, three losses (L, W, L, L, W). Away from home, they have struggled, losing their last three away games: 0-3 at Real Maryland Monarchs, 3-4 at Los Angeles II, and 1-3 at North Texas SC. However, their home form has been strong, with a 4-0 win over Sporting Kansas City II and a 4-2 win over Vancouver Whitecaps II in their two most recent home matches.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record between these teams is one-sided. In 10 total meetings, Tacoma Defiance has 6 wins, San Jose Earthquakes II has 0 wins, and there have been 4 draws. The most recent fixture on Jul 13, 2026 ended 1-0 in favor of Tacoma Defiance. The last five meetings show 3 wins for Tacoma Defiance and 2 draws. San Jose Earthquakes II has never beaten Tacoma Defiance in their history.

League Table Positions

Neither team appears in the top 12 of the MLS Next Pro overall standings, indicating both are in the lower half of the table. The available data does not show exact positions for these clubs, but the form and head-to-head record suggest a competitive lower-mid-table clash.

Win Probability: San Jose Earthquakes II or Tacoma Defiance?

Based on the odds, form, H2H record, and home advantage, we calculate the following win probabilities:

• San Jose Earthquakes II win: 40%
• Draw: 30%
• Tacoma Defiance win: 30%

The bookmakers' average implied probability makes San Jose Earthquakes II the favorite at around 46%, but the historical head-to-head dominance of Tacoma Defiance (6 wins in 10 games) and their recent away struggles force a downward adjustment. The home side has a slight edge, but the match is more balanced than the odds suggest. Tacoma Defiance has a real chance of pulling off an away result, especially given San Jose Earthquakes II's never having beaten them.

Odds & Match Prediction

The best available odds for this MLS Next Pro match are 1.73 for a San Jose Earthquakes II win, 2.50 for the draw, and 3.80 for a Tacoma Defiance away win. These numbers show the bookmakers clearly see San Jose Earthquakes II as the favorite, but the value may lie on the away side or the draw, considering the H2H history.

Our San Jose Earthquakes II vs Tacoma Defiance prediction leans toward a draw or a narrow away win. The head-to-head record cannot be ignored, and Tacoma Defiance has consistently found a way to get a result in this fixture. A 1-1 draw is a realistic outcome. However, if you are looking for betting tips, the draw no bet market on Tacoma Defiance could offer value, or the under 2.5 goals option, given that 4 of the last 5 H2H meetings had 2 goals or fewer.