Tartu JK Welco Elekter - JK Nomme Kalju II prediction 14/09/2026

The Tartu JK Welco Elekter vs JK Nomme Kalju 2 prediction for September 14, 2026, points to a clear home favorite. This Esiliiga match kicks off at 16:00, and based on the stats, Tartu JK Welco Elekter has a 78% chance to win. The draw sits at 14%, and JK Nomme Kalju 2 has an 8% chance of an upset.

Team Form

Tartu JK Welco Elekter comes into this match with mixed recent results. Their last five games show two draws, one loss, and two wins (D, D, L, W, W). The most recent outings were a 0-0 draw at Levadia Tallinn II on Sep 10 and a 1-1 draw at Tallinna Kalev on Sep 05. Before that, they lost 1-3 at home to Viimsi MRJK but bounced back with a 4-2 away win against this same opponent, JK Nomme Kalju 2, on Aug 23.

JK Nomme Kalju 2 is struggling badly. Their last five results are L, L, W, L, L. They suffered a heavy 1-5 home loss to Flora Tallinn II on Sep 10 and a 0-1 defeat at Elva on Sep 06. The only bright spot was a 2-0 win at FC Tallinn on Aug 29. The team has lost four of its last five, conceding 13 goals in that span.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record heavily favors Tartu JK Welco Elekter. In 12 previous meetings, Tartu JK Welco Elekter has 11 wins, JK Nomme Kalju 2 has 1 win, and there have been 0 draws. The last five matches tell the same story: Tartu JK Welco Elekter won four, including a 4-2 away victory on Aug 23, 2026, and a 5-2 home win on Oct 23, 2025. JK Nomme Kalju 2's lone win in this series came earlier, but recent history shows total dominance by the home side.

League Table Positions

Tartu JK Welco Elekter sits 1st in the Esiliiga table with 56 points from 28 matches (17 wins, 5 draws, 6 losses). They have scored 76 goals and conceded 39. JK Nomme Kalju 2 is 10th with just 22 points from 28 games (6 wins, 4 draws, 18 losses), scoring 36 and conceding 73. The gap is 34 points. At home, Tartu JK Welco Elekter is also 1st with 27 points from 13 games. JK Nomme Kalju 2 does not appear in the top 8 of the away standings, underlining their travel struggles.

Win Probability: Tartu JK Welco Elekter or JK Nomme Kalju 2?

Who will win this match? The win probability calculation gives Tartu JK Welco Elekter a 78% chance. The draw is at 14%, and JK Nomme Kalju 2 has an 8% chance. These numbers are built from the available odds, which imply a home win probability around 75-80% after removing the bookmaker margin. The extreme H2H record (11-0-1), the 34-point gap in the standings, and JK Nomme Kalju 2's poor away form all push the favorite's chances even higher. The conclusion is clear: Tartu JK Welco Elekter is the overwhelming favorite to win.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see this as a one-sided contest. The best available odds for a Tartu JK Welco Elekter win are as low as 1.17, with other quotes at 1.18, 1.21, 1.25, and 1.26. The draw is priced between 3.20 and 7.25, and an away win for JK Nomme Kalju 2 ranges from 6.25 to 9.33. Based on the stats, form, and head-to-head record, the Tartu JK Welco Elekter vs JK Nomme Kalju 2 prediction is a comfortable home win. The betting tips point to a Tartu JK Welco Elekter victory, and the total goals could be high given the 4-2 and 5-2 scorelines in recent meetings.