Tochigi SC - Renofa Yamaguchi prediction 11/10/2026

The Tochigi SC vs Renofa Yamaguchi prediction for this J3 League fixture points to an away win for Renofa Yamaguchi, who hold a 40% chance of victory. The match kicks off on October 11, 2026, and the visitors arrive in far better shape despite the historical head-to-head record leaning toward the home side.

Forma das Equipes

Tochigi SC are struggling badly. Their last five results read D, L, L, D, L – just two draws and three defeats. A 1-2 home loss to Matsumoto Yamaga and a 1-3 defeat at Kagoshima United underline the lack of confidence. They have not won any of those five matches.

Renofa Yamaguchi, in contrast, are flying. Their last five matches brought four wins and one draw: W, D, W, W, W. Recent away victories include a 2-0 at Gifu, a 2-1 at Zweigen Kanazawa, and a 3-0 at Gainare Tottori. Only one goal conceded in those three away trips shows how solid they are on the road.

Confronto Direto

Overall, the head-to-head record favours Tochigi SC with 11 wins, 2 draws, and just 3 wins for Renofa Yamaguchi in 16 meetings. However, the most recent clashes – all from 2023 – were much tighter: a 2-1 Tochigi win and two draws (0-0 and 1-1). So while Tochigi historically dominate, the current form gap narrows the advantage.

Posições na Tabela

Tochigi SC do not appear in the top 12 of the J3 League standings, suggesting a low-table position. Renofa Yamaguchi sit 6th with 17 points from 9 matches (5 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses), scoring 13 and conceding only 7. Their away record is particularly strong – 3 wins and 2 losses, with 8 goals scored and 5 conceded – placing them 4th in the away table. The table clearly underlines Renofa's superiority.

Probabilidade de Vitória: Tochigi SC ou Renofa Yamaguchi?

Based on a detailed analysis that combines bookmaker odds, team form, head-to-head data, and league standings, the win probabilities for this match are:

• Tochigi SC: 25%
• Empate: 35%
• Renofa Yamaguchi: 40%

The odds market initially implied a close contest with a slight home favourite, but Tochigi's dreadful form (zero wins in five) and Renofa's excellent away run tip the balance decisively toward the visitors. The 35% chance for a draw reflects the high likelihood of a tight, low-scoring game.

Oddds e Previsão da Partida

Bookmakers are offering varied odds. One operator prices a Tochigi SC win at 2.85, the draw at 3.44, and a Renofa Yamaguchi win at 2.64. These numbers confirm that the market sees the match as very open, but the stats make Renofa the smarter pick. Our prediction: Renofa Yamaguchi to win or the double chance X2 (visitors or draw) looks the safest betting tip for this J3 League encounter.