Tondela - SCU Torreense prediction 10/10/2026

The Tondela vs SCU Torreense prediction for October 10, 2026, points to a home win in this Segunda Liga match. Based on the latest odds, team form, and head-to-head record, Tondela has a 45% chance of winning, while the draw sits at 28% and SCU Torreense has a 27% chance. The game kicks off at 07:00 at Estádio João Cardoso, in Tondela.

Team Form

Tondela comes into this match with a mixed recent run. In their last five games across all competitions, they have three wins and two losses. The wins include a 5-1 away victory against Imortal in the Cup, a 2-0 away win at Portimonense, and a 3-0 home success over Porto B, both in the Segunda Liga. The two defeats were a 2-0 loss at Uniao Leiria and a 0-2 home reverse against Academica Coimbra. At home in the league, Tondela has won two of three matches, scoring five goals and conceding three.

SCU Torreense has two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five outings. They beat Lillestrom 2-1 away in the UEFA Europa League and won 2-0 at Benfica B in the league. The draws came against Leixoes (0-0 at home) and Lusitania Lourosa (2-2 away). Their only recent defeat was a heavy 0-3 home loss to Vizela. On the road in the Segunda Liga, Torreense has taken four points from two away games, with a win and a draw.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head between Tondela and SCU Torreense shows a balanced history. In the last six meetings, Tondela won twice, SCU Torreense won once, and three matches ended in draws. The most recent clash, on March 1, 2025, finished 2-2 in Tondela. Before that, Tondela won 1-0 away in March 2024. At Estádio João Cardoso, Tondela has not beaten Torreense in the last three attempts, with two draws and one loss. The last home win for Tondela in this fixture was back in 2022.

League Table Positions

In the Segunda Liga standings, Tondela is 10th with 9 points from six matches (three wins, three losses). They have scored seven goals and conceded six. At home, they sit 8th with six points from three games. SCU Torreense is outside the top 12, with a lower points total and a less consistent record. The table gap gives Tondela a slight edge, especially playing at home.

Win Probability: Tondela or SCU Torreense?

After analyzing the odds, recent form, and head-to-head stats, we calculate the win probability for this match. Tondela has a 45% chance to win, the draw is at 28%, and SCU Torreense has a 27% chance. The home advantage, combined with Tondela's better league position and stronger home form, makes them the favorite. However, Torreense's away results this season - a win and a draw - show they can be dangerous on the road. The head-to-head also suggests a tight contest, with three draws in the last six meetings.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see Tondela as the favorite. The best available odds for a home win are around 2.39, the draw is priced at 3.22, and an away win for SCU Torreense is at 3.08. These odds imply a close match, but the market leans toward the home side. Our Tondela vs SCU Torreense prediction is a home win, based on the stats and the 45% probability. For betting tips, the home win offers value, but the draw is also a realistic outcome given the H2H record. A low-scoring game is likely, as both teams have shown tight defenses in recent weeks.