Samsunspor - Trabzonspor prediction 10/10/2026

The Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor prediction for October 10, 2026, points to an away win in this Super League clash. Based on odds, form, and head-to-head stats, Trabzonspor has a 43% chance of winning, while Samsunspor sits at 22% and a draw at 35%. The match kicks off at 10:00 at Samsun Stadium.

Team Form

Samsunspor comes into this game in poor shape. They lost four of their last five matches: 1-0 at Erzurum Buyuksehir, 5-1 at home to Corum Belediyespor, 1-0 at Kocaelispor, and 2-0 at home to Fenerbahce. The only bright spot was a 2-0 away win at Caykur Rizespor on August 22. That run leaves them with just one victory in five, and they have conceded 9 goals in those defeats.

Trabzonspor's recent form is mixed but more promising. Their last five results: a 1-0 friendly loss to Drogheda United, a stunning 4-0 home win over Galatasaray, a 1-0 loss at Konyaspor, a 5-0 home thrashing of Genclerbirligi, and a 2-1 defeat at Amed Sportif Faaliyetler. Two big wins at home show their attacking potential, but away losses highlight inconsistency. Still, they have scored 10 goals in those five games.

Head-to-Head Record

The H2H record slightly favors Trabzonspor. In the last five meetings, Samsunspor won once (2-1 at home in January 2025), there were three draws (0-0, 1-1, 2-2), and Trabzonspor won 3-0 at Samsunspor in February 2026. Overall, across nine encounters, Trabzonspor has 4 wins, Samsunspor 2, and 3 draws. The most recent match, a Cup tie in April 2026, ended 0-0. Trabzonspor has not lost in four of the last five head-to-heads.

League Table Positions

Trabzonspor sits 7th in the Super League with 10 points from 6 matches (3 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses), scoring 13 and conceding 5. Their home form is perfect with 3 wins from 3, but away they are less convincing. Samsunspor is outside the top 12 in the standings, indicating a difficult start to the season. The gap in points and goal difference underlines Trabzonspor's superiority on paper.

Win Probability: Samsunspor or Trabzonspor?

After analyzing all available data, we calculate the win probabilities as follows: Samsunspor 22%, draw 35%, Trabzonspor 43%. The odds from bookmakers imply a similar picture - Trabzonspor is the favorite with average odds around 2.16, while Samsunspor is priced at 3.58. We adjusted the raw implied probabilities to account for Samsunspor's terrible recent form (1 win in 5), Trabzonspor's higher league position, and the H2H edge. Home advantage gives Samsunspor a chance, but their leaky defense makes a Trabzonspor win the most likely outcome.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see Trabzonspor as the favorite. The best available odds for an away win are as low as 1.88, while Samsunspor can be backed at up to 3.86. The draw is offered around 2.30. Based on the stats, Trabzonspor has the quality to take all three points, but a draw is a real possibility given the H2H history. Our Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor prediction is an away win, but with a cautious eye on the draw. For betting tips, the away win odds offer value, and under 2.5 goals could also be considered given the recent low-scoring meetings.