Fafe - Trofense prediction 11/10/2026

Fafe vs Trofense prediction: the Tercera Liga match on October 11, 2026, at 12:30 (local time) sees Fafe as the favorite with a 52% chance of winning. The game is played in Portugal and both teams need points to climb the league table.

Team Form

Fafe comes into this match with a mixed but decent run: two wins, two draws, and one loss in the last five games. They beat Juventude Desportiva Lajense 4-0 and Leca 3-0, drew with Pacos Ferreira (0-0) and Vitoria Guimaraes B (1-1), and lost 2-1 to Paredes. The team scores regularly and has kept two clean sheets in that period.

Trofense has struggled recently, with only one win in five matches. They lost 4-1 to Leca, 5-1 to Varzim, and 2-0 to Vianense, drew 0-0 with Vitoria Guimaraes B, and beat Sao Joao Ver 1-0. The defense has been leaky, conceding 11 goals in those five outings.

Head-to-Head Record

These two sides have met seven times in recent years. Trofense leads the head-to-head with 4 wins, while Fafe has 3 victories. There have been no draws. The most recent clash was on December 14, 2025, when Trofense won 2-1 away at Fafe. In the last five meetings, Trofense won three and Fafe two, so the H2H is tight but slightly favors the away side historically.

League Table Positions

Fafe sits 9th in the Tercera Liga overall standings with 8 points from 5 matches (2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss). They have scored 8 goals and conceded only 4. Trofense is not in the top 12 of the table, which suggests a lower position and fewer points. Fafe also shows solid away form (6 points from 3 away games), but this match is at home where they will look to improve their record.

Win Probability: Fafe or Trofense?

Based on the odds, team form, head-to-head record, and league positions, we calculate the following win probabilities:

• Fafe win: 52%
• Draw: 30%
• Trofense win: 18%

Fafe is the clear favorite. The odds imply a home win probability around 46%, but Fafe's better recent form and higher league standing push that number up. Trofense's poor defensive record and low table position reduce their chances. The draw is a realistic outcome given Fafe's two recent draws, but the home side has enough quality to secure all three points.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers have set the following average odds: Fafe win at 1.95, draw at 2.38, and Trofense win at 5.67. These odds reflect the market's view of Fafe as the favorite. Our Fafe vs Trofense prediction is a home win, but the draw is a live possibility. Betting tips: the home win offers value if you trust Fafe's form, while the under 2.5 goals market could be interesting given both teams' recent scoring patterns.