Fredrikstad - Tromso prediction 11/10/2026

Fredrikstad vs Tromso prediction for the Eliteserien match on October 11, 2026, at Fredrikstad Stadion. Based on the stats, Tromso is the favorite with a 42% win probability, while Fredrikstad has a 30% chance and the draw is at 28%.

Team Form

Fredrikstad's recent form has been inconsistent. In their last five matches, they recorded one win, three draws, and one loss. They drew 0-0 against Sandefjord in a friendly, 1-1 with Valerenga, and 1-1 with Sarpsborg 08. The only win came against Stjordals Blink (1-0) in the Cup, and they lost 1-2 at home to Bodo/Glimt.

Tromso comes into this match with two wins, two losses, and one draw in their last five. They beat Ham-Kam 3-2 at home and Alta 2-1 away in the Cup. However, they suffered a heavy 3-5 defeat at Rosenborg and a 0-2 loss at Kristiansund. Their most recent result was a 0-0 home draw with Sarpsborg 08.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record clearly favors Tromso. In the last three meetings, Tromso won twice and there was one draw. Fredrikstad has never beaten Tromso in this period. The most recent match, on March 15, 2026, saw Tromso win 4-0 at home. Earlier, on June 29, 2025, Tromso won 1-0 at Fredrikstad Stadion. The only draw was a 0-0 on August 2, 2025, in Tromso.

League Table Positions

Tromso sits 3rd in the Eliteserien table with 38 points from 21 matches (11 wins, 5 draws, 5 losses). Fredrikstad is 8th with 28 points (8 wins, 4 draws, 9 losses). Tromso's away record is solid: 4 wins, 2 draws, 4 losses in 10 games. Fredrikstad's home form is average: 5 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses in 10 matches. The 10-point gap and higher position give Tromso a clear advantage.

Win Probability: Fredrikstad or Tromso?

After analyzing the odds, form, H2H, and league standings, the win probability for this match is: Fredrikstad 30%, draw 28%, Tromso 42%. The bookmakers' odds (home 2.85, draw 3.50, away 2.49) imply a slight edge for Tromso, and the team's superior league position and dominant head-to-head record reinforce that. Fredrikstad's home advantage and Tromso's occasional away struggles keep the match competitive, but the numbers point to an away win as the most likely outcome.

Odds & Match Prediction

The best available odds for this Eliteserien clash are: Fredrikstad win at 2.85, draw at 3.50, and Tromso win at 2.49. These odds come from multiple bookmakers and reflect Tromso's status as the favorite. Our Fredrikstad vs Tromso prediction, based on the stats, is a Tromso victory. The team's form, historical dominance, and higher league position all support this betting tip. However, the draw remains a real possibility given Fredrikstad's recent string of stalemates.