FK Progress Super Nova - Tukums 2000 prediction 10/09/2026

The FK Progress Super Nova vs Tukums 2000 prediction for September 10, 2026 is here. This Virsliga match kicks off at 16:00, and FK Progress Super Nova comes in as the slight favorite with a 45% win probability. The draw sits at 28%, and Tukums 2000 has a 27% chance. Our betting tips break down the team form, head-to-head record, and league table positions to help you decide who will win.

Team Form

FK Progress Super Nova's last five matches show a mixed run: W, D, D, L, W. They beat Jelgava 1-0 away on Sep 05 and drew 1-1 with Auda on Aug 29. A 0-0 home draw against BFC Daugavpils on Aug 22 and a 1-2 loss to Liepajas Metalurgs on Aug 09 were followed by a 2-0 home win over Grobinas SC on Jul 20. The home side has been tough to beat lately, with only one loss in five.

Tukums 2000's recent form reads W, L, L, L, W. They won 2-1 at home against Ogre United on Sep 05, but before that they lost 1-4 at home to Jelgava, 0-3 away to Auda, 0-2 away to BFC Daugavpils, and beat Liepajas Metalurgs 2-1 away on Aug 02. The away form is a concern - three straight losses on the road before that win.

Head-to-Head Record

In the last 18 meetings, Tukums 2000 leads with 7 wins to FK Progress Super Nova's 6, and 5 draws. The most recent H2H matches favor the away side: FK Progress Super Nova won 2-1 at Tukums 2000 on Jul 01, 2026, and 2-1 away on Mar 22, 2026. A 1-1 draw at home on May 11, 2026, and a 1-0 home win on Jul 06, 2025, show FK Progress Super Nova has not lost to Tukums 2000 in the last four clashes. The last Tukums 2000 win was a 2-1 home result on Sep 28, 2025.

League Table Positions

FK Progress Super Nova sits 6th in the Virsliga overall standings with 32 points from 27 matches (9 wins, 5 draws, 13 losses). They have scored 28 goals and conceded 38. At home, they are not in the top 8, but their away form is strong - 4th in the away table with 23 points from 14 games. Tukums 2000 is 9th overall with 23 points from 29 matches (5 wins, 8 draws, 16 losses), scoring 43 but conceding 59. Their home record is 6th best (19 points from 15 games), but the away form is poor. The gap is 9 points, and FK Progress Super Nova has two games in hand.

Win Probability: FK Progress Super Nova or Tukums 2000?

Based on the stats, FK Progress Super Nova has a 45% chance to win, the draw is at 28%, and Tukums 2000 has a 27% chance. The home advantage for FK Progress Super Nova is not huge - their home record is mid-table - but the recent H2H dominance (unbeaten in four) and better overall league position tip the scales. Tukums 2000's away struggles (three losses in the last four road games) lower their win probability. The draw gets a solid 28% because both teams have had several stalemates lately - FK Progress Super Nova with two draws in the last five, and the H2H history showing 5 draws in 18 matches.

Odds & Match Prediction

No bookmaker odds are available in the data for this FK Progress Super Nova vs Tukums 2000 match. Our prediction is based purely on team form, head-to-head stats, and league table positions. FK Progress Super Nova is the pick to win, but the draw is a real possibility. Betting tips: a home win or draw double chance looks the safest play. The total goals could be low - FK Progress Super Nova's recent matches have been tight, and the last H2H games had under 2.5 goals in three of the last four. Always check the latest odds before placing a bet.