El Paso Locomotive - Tulsa Roughnecks prediction 25/09/2026

Our El Paso Locomotive vs Tulsa Roughnecks prediction for this USL Championship match on Sep 25, 2026, at 22:00 points to a home win. Based on the latest odds, team form, and head-to-head record, El Paso Locomotive has a 52% chance of winning, the draw is at 27%, and Tulsa Roughnecks has a 21% chance. Bookmakers see El Paso Locomotive as the clear favorite, and the stats back that up.

Team Form

El Paso Locomotive comes into this match in stunning form with five straight wins. They beat Phoenix Rising 3-1 away, Louisville 2-1 away, Loudoun United 4-1 at home, Pittsburgh Riverhounds 2-1 at home, and Colorado Springs Switchbacks 1-0 away. That is a perfect run of results, showing they can win both at home and on the road.

Tulsa Roughnecks have been less consistent. Their last five matches show two wins, two draws, and one loss. They drew 2-2 away at Brooklyn FC, lost 2-1 away at Phoenix Rising, drew 0-0 away at San Antonio FC, beat Rhode Island FC 1-0 at home, and thrashed Orange County Blue Star 5-1 away. The away form is a bit shaky, with only one win in the last three road trips.

Head-to-Head Record

In the last four head-to-head meetings, Tulsa Roughnecks have the edge with two wins and two draws. El Paso Locomotive has never beaten Tulsa Roughnecks. The most recent match was on Jul 18, 2026, when Tulsa Roughnecks won 1-0 at home. Before that, on Apr 29, 2026, Tulsa Roughnecks won 4-1 away at El Paso Locomotive. The two matches in 2025 both ended in 1-1 draws. The H2H record clearly favors the away side, which is a key factor for any El Paso Locomotive vs Tulsa Roughnecks prediction.

League Table Positions

El Paso Locomotive sits 2nd in the USL Championship overall standings with 46 points from 25 matches. They have 14 wins, 4 draws, and 7 losses, scoring 44 goals and conceding 31. They are the best away team in the league with 26 points from 14 road matches. Tulsa Roughnecks are 11th with 37 points from 24 matches, with a record of 10 wins, 7 draws, and 7 losses. Their away form ranks 7th, with 16 points from 12 matches. The 9-point gap and higher position give El Paso Locomotive a clear advantage in the standings.

Win Probability: El Paso Locomotive or Tulsa Roughnecks?

Who will win this match? We calculate El Paso Locomotive has a 52% chance, the draw is at 27%, and Tulsa Roughnecks has a 21% chance. This win probability is based on the betting odds, which we normalized to remove the bookmaker margin, and then adjusted for the teams' current form and the H2H record. The odds imply a home win probability around 50%, but El Paso Locomotive's five-match winning streak pushes that number slightly higher. The head-to-head record, where Tulsa Roughnecks have never lost to El Paso Locomotive, is the main reason the away win probability is not lower, and why the draw also gets a solid percentage. Still, current form and league position make El Paso Locomotive the more likely winner.

Odds & Match Prediction

The best available odds for this match are 1.88 for an El Paso Locomotive win, 2.25 for the draw, and 4.00 for a Tulsa Roughnecks win. Bookmakers clearly see El Paso Locomotive as the favorite. Our El Paso Locomotive vs Tulsa Roughnecks prediction is a home win. The combination of top form, a higher league position, and home advantage should be enough to overcome the poor H2H record. For betting tips, the home win offers value, but the draw is also a reasonable consideration given the history between these two teams.