Ulinzi Stars - Tusker prediction 11/10/2026

The Ulinzi Stars vs Tusker prediction for October 11, 2026, points to a tight Premier League match in Kenya. Tusker comes in as the favorite with a 52% win probability, while Ulinzi Stars has a 23% chance and the draw sits at 25%. The match kicks off at 08:00 local time.

Team Form

Ulinzi Stars come into this match with a solid run of results. Their last five matches show three wins and two draws (W-W-W-D-D). At home, they beat Mathare United 2-1 and Tusker 2-0 in May, showing they can score goals in front of their fans. The two recent draws were both 0-0 against Tusker, which suggests a tight defense but a lack of cutting edge in attack.

Tusker's recent form is built on draws. Their last five results are one win and four draws (W-D-D-D-D). The win came at home against Al Ahli Wad Medani in the CAF Confederation Cup. In the Premier League, they have drawn three of their last four, including two 0-0 stalemates with Ulinzi Stars. They are hard to beat but struggle to turn draws into wins.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record between these two teams is very close. In the last 25 meetings, Tusker has 10 wins, Ulinzi Stars has 4, and 11 matches ended in a draw. The most recent five matches show the trend clearly: two 0-0 draws in September 2026, a 2-0 win for Ulinzi Stars in May 2026, a 2-1 win for Tusker in the Cup in May 2026, and a 1-0 win for Tusker in December 2025. The H2H stats point to a low-scoring affair, with three of the last five games having under 2.5 goals.

League Table Positions

The Premier League standings show both teams are yet to start the new season. Ulinzi Stars and Tusker are both on 0 points with no matches played. The table is wide open, so this early-season match is a chance for either side to set the tone. No recent league points gap gives us a clear favorite from the standings alone.

Win Probability: Ulinzi Stars or Tusker?

Based on the odds, form, and H2H record, here are the calculated win probabilities for this match: Tusker has a 52% chance to win, the draw is at 25%, and Ulinzi Stars has a 23% chance. The bookmaker odds (home 4.30, draw 2.85, away 1.85) were used as the base, with the implied probabilities adjusted for the margin and then weighted by recent form and the head-to-head record. Tusker's away odds of 1.85 show the market sees them as the clear favorite. The high number of draws in the H2H (11 out of 25) pushes the draw probability up to 25%. Ulinzi Stars' home advantage and their 2-0 win in the last H2H at this ground give them a fighting chance, but the overall picture favors Tusker.

Odds & Match Prediction

The best available odds for the Ulinzi Stars vs Tusker match are: home win at 4.33, draw at 2.90, and away win at 1.83. Bookmakers see Tusker as the favorite, and the stats back that up. Our Ulinzi Stars vs Tusker prediction is a Tusker win, but a draw is a real possibility given the history between these sides. For betting tips, the under 2.5 goals market looks interesting - three of the last five H2H games ended with two goals or fewer. Based on the stats, Tusker to win with a clean sheet is a solid pick.