UAI Urquiza - Ituzaingo prediction 05/10/2026

Our UAI Urquiza vs Ituzaingo prediction for the Primera B Metropolitana match on October 5, 2026, points to a home win. UAI Urquiza has a 52% probability of winning, the draw is at 27%, and Ituzaingo has a 21% chance. The match kicks off at 15:00 local time in Argentina.

Team Form

UAI Urquiza come into this match with a mixed run of results. Their last five games show one draw, three losses, and one win (D, L, L, W, L). At home, they beat Argentino Merlo 2-0 on Sep 6 but lost 1-2 to Excursionistas on Sep 19. Ituzaingo are struggling for form. Their last five results are L, L, D, L, L. They lost 0-1 at home to Defensores Unidos on Sep 25 and were beaten 3-1 away at Villa Dalmine on Sep 19.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record between these two teams favors Ituzaingo. In their last five meetings, Ituzaingo won three times, UAI Urquiza won once, and there was one draw. The most recent match, on May 22, 2026, ended in a 1-1 draw. UAI Urquiza's last home win against Ituzaingo was a 3-1 victory in June 2023.

League Table Positions

Neither team appears in the top 12 of the overall league table, which is led by Excursionistas with 74 points. The available standings data does not include UAI Urquiza or Ituzaingo, suggesting both are in the lower half of the table. This makes the match a battle for crucial points, with home advantage potentially playing a key role.

Win Probability: UAI Urquiza or Ituzaingo?

Based on the bookmaker odds and recent form, we calculate the win probability as follows: UAI Urquiza 52%, draw 27%, Ituzaingo 21%. The odds heavily favor a home win, with the best price for UAI Urquiza at 1.67. We adjusted the implied probabilities from the odds to account for the bookmaker margin and then factored in UAI Urquiza's slightly better recent form and home advantage. Ituzaingo's poor away form - four losses in their last five - significantly reduces their chances. UAI Urquiza is the more likely winner.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see UAI Urquiza as the clear favorite. The available 1X2 odds show a home win priced between 1.60 and 1.67, the draw around 3.25 to 3.50, and an away win for Ituzaingo as high as 6.88. Our UAI Urquiza vs Ituzaingo prediction is a home win. Based on the stats, the odds for UAI Urquiza offer value, while Ituzaingo's long winless run makes an away victory unlikely.