NEC Bugolobi - URA FC prediction 15/09/2026

The NEC Bugolobi vs URA FC prediction for September 15, 2026 points to a home win in the Uganda Premier League. NEC Bugolobi enters this match as the clear favorite with a 55% win probability, while URA FC has a 20% chance and the draw sits at 25%. The match kicks off at 13:00.

Team Form

NEC Bugolobi comes into this match in solid shape. Their last five results show three wins, one draw, and one loss. They drew 0-0 away at Mbarara City FC on Sep 11, beat Lugazi Municipal 3-1 at home on Sep 01, and won 2-0 away at Kampala Capital City Authority on Aug 29. The only recent setback was a 4-1 home loss to SC Villa back in May.

URA FC has been a bit more inconsistent lately. Their last five matches include two wins, one draw, and two losses. They lost 1-0 at home to SC Villa on Sep 04, but won 2-1 away at Maroons on Aug 30. A 3-0 away win against Buhimba United Saints FC on May 22 shows they can score goals on the road, but a 1-0 Cup loss to SC Villa on May 16 highlights some struggles.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record heavily favors NEC Bugolobi. In their last five meetings, NEC Bugolobi has won three times, with two draws and zero wins for URA FC. The most recent clash was on April 9, 2026, when NEC Bugolobi won 1-0 at home. Before that, they drew 1-1 at URA FC on October 2, 2025. NEC Bugolobi also won 1-0 at home in May 2025 and 2-0 at home in December 2023. URA FC has not beaten NEC Bugolobi in any of these recent matchups.

League Table Positions

Looking at the Uganda Premier League standings, NEC Bugolobi sits in 3rd place with 7 points from 3 matches (2 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses). They have scored 5 goals and conceded only 1. URA FC is in 9th place with 3 points from 2 matches (1 win, 0 draws, 1 loss), scoring 2 and conceding 2. The home and away splits also favor NEC Bugolobi - they are unbeaten away with 4 points from 2 games, while URA FC has 3 points from their single away match this season.

Win Probability: NEC Bugolobi or URA FC?

Based on the available odds, form, head-to-head record, and league positions, we calculate the win probability as follows: NEC Bugolobi has a 55% chance to win, the draw is at 25%, and URA FC has a 20% chance. The odds imply a home win is the most likely outcome, and NEC Bugolobi's strong H2H record - 3 wins and 2 draws in the last 5 meetings - reinforces that. URA FC's away form is decent but they have never beaten NEC Bugolobi in recent history, which lowers their probability. The home advantage for NEC Bugolobi and their higher league position are the key factors here.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see NEC Bugolobi as the favorite. The available 1X2 odds show home win prices around 1.78 to 1.80, the draw at 1.92 to 1.95, and an away win for URA FC as high as 5.00 to 5.15. One outlier lists the home win at 1.52 and the draw at 1.11, but the consensus points to a comfortable home advantage. Based on the stats, the NEC Bugolobi vs URA FC prediction is a home win. The head-to-head dominance, better league form, and the odds all point to NEC Bugolobi taking all three points.