Viimsi MRJK - Tartu JK Welco Elekter prediction 17/09/2026

This Viimsi MRJK vs Tartu JK Welco Elekter prediction looks ahead to the Esiliiga match on September 17, 2026, at 16:00. Based on the latest odds, form, and head-to-head record, Viimsi MRJK is the favorite with a 50% win probability, while Tartu JK Welco Elekter has a 25% chance and the draw stands at 25%.

Team Form

Viimsi MRJK come into this match with three wins and two losses in their last five games. They beat Elva 5-0 and Nomme United 2 4-1 at home, but lost 1-0 away to Nomme United 2 and 2-1 at home to FC Tallinn. Their most recent result was a 3-1 away win against Tartu JK Welco Elekter on August 29.

Tartu JK Welco Elekter have two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five. They drew 0-0 away to Levadia Tallinn II and 1-1 away to Tallinna Kalev, won 3-0 at home against JK Nomme Kalju 2, and lost 3-1 at home to Viimsi MRJK. Their last match was a 3-0 home win over JK Nomme Kalju 2 on September 14.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record heavily favors Viimsi MRJK. In 11 total meetings, Viimsi MRJK have won 7, Tartu JK Welco Elekter have won 1, and 3 ended in draws. The last five encounters tell the same story: Viimsi MRJK won 3-1 away on August 29, 2026, drew 2-2 away on July 2, 2026, won 2-0 at home on April 23, 2026, won 4-1 away on October 3, 2025, and won 3-2 at home on August 18, 2025. Viimsi MRJK have scored 14 goals in those five matches, conceding only 6.

League Table Positions

Tartu JK Welco Elekter sit top of the Esiliiga with 59 points from 29 matches (18 wins, 5 draws, 6 losses). Viimsi MRJK are second with 50 points (15 wins, 5 draws, 9 losses). Despite the 9-point gap, Viimsi MRJK have the better defensive record, conceding just 29 goals compared to Tartu's 39. At home, Viimsi MRJK rank 5th with 23 points from 14 games, while Tartu JK Welco Elekter have the best away record in the league – 29 points from 15 matches (9 wins, 2 draws, 4 losses).

Win Probability: Viimsi MRJK or Tartu JK Welco Elekter?

After analyzing the odds, form, head-to-head stats, and league positions, we calculate the win probabilities as follows: Viimsi MRJK 50%, draw 25%, Tartu JK Welco Elekter 25%. The odds market implies a home win around 44.6%, but we have adjusted that upward because of Viimsi MRJK's dominant H2H record and their solid home form. Tartu JK Welco Elekter are the league leaders and have the best away record, which keeps their chances at 25%, but the historical matchup clearly favors the home side. The draw probability is set at 25% based on the odds and the fact that two of Tartu's last five matches ended level.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers' odds for this Viimsi MRJK vs Tartu JK Welco Elekter prediction show a home win priced around 1.83 to 1.93, the draw at 2.60 to 4.03, and an away win at 3.10 to 3.50. The average odds imply Viimsi MRJK are the favorites, and our analysis supports that. Based on the stats, the most likely outcome is a Viimsi MRJK win, but the draw is a real possibility given Tartu JK Welco Elekter's resilience on the road. For betting tips, the home win offers value if you trust the head-to-head trend, while the under 2.5 goals market could also be worth a look considering Viimsi MRJK's strong defense.