Vitoria BA - Chapecoense SC prediction 07/10/2026

Vitoria BA vs Chapecoense SC prediction for the Serie A match on Oct 7, 2026, at 20:00 in Barradao, Salvador. Based on the stats, Vitoria BA is the favorite with a 55% win probability, while Chapecoense SC has a 20% chance and the draw sits at 25%.

Team Form

Vitoria BA comes into this match with a mixed run of results: L, D, W, L, L in their last five outings. They lost 1-3 at home to Cruzeiro MG, drew 2-2 away at Mirassol SP, beat Gremio RS 1-0 at home, lost 0-2 at home to Vasco da Gama RJ in the Cup, and lost 1-2 away to Atletico Mineiro MG. That is two wins in the last five if we count the cup, but only one league win in that span. At home, Vitoria BA has been strong overall this season with 9 wins, 1 draw, and 4 losses in 14 home league games, sitting 5th in the home table.

Chapecoense SC's recent form reads D, D, L, W, L. They drew 1-1 away at Atletico Nacional Medellin in a friendly, drew 1-1 away at Atletico Mineiro MG, lost 1-2 at home to Internacional RS, won 2-1 away at Corinthians SP, and lost 1-3 away to Gremio RS. In the league, they have one win, two draws, and two losses in the last five. Their away form in Serie A is not among the top eight, which suggests they struggle on the road.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head between Vitoria BA and Chapecoense SC shows 8 home wins, 3 draws, and 5 away wins across all meetings. The last five encounters: on Apr 5, 2026, Chapecoense SC 1-1 Vitoria BA; Nov 25, 2023, Chapecoense SC 3-1 Vitoria BA; Jul 24, 2023, Vitoria BA 1-0 Chapecoense SC; Jan 17, 2021, Vitoria BA 0-0 Chapecoense SC; Oct 17, 2020, Chapecoense SC 1-1 Vitoria BA. At home, Vitoria BA has one win and one draw in the last two H2H clashes.

League Table Positions

In the overall Serie A standings, neither team appears in the top 12. However, the home table shows Vitoria BA in 5th place with 28 points from 14 matches (9W, 1D, 4L), scoring 18 and conceding 12. Chapecoense SC does not feature in the top eight of the away table, indicating a weaker away record. This home advantage is a key factor in the Vitoria BA vs Chapecoense SC prediction.

Win Probability: Vitoria BA or Chapecoense SC?

After analyzing the odds, form, H2H, and league positions, we calculate the win probability as follows: Vitoria BA has a 55% chance to win, the draw is at 25%, and Chapecoense SC has a 20% chance. The bookmakers' average odds of 1.66 for a home win imply a probability around 48%, but Vitoria BA's strong home record (9 wins in 14) and Chapecoense SC's poor away form push the home win probability higher. The H2H at Barradao also favors the home side. So, Vitoria BA is the more likely winner, but the draw cannot be ruled out.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers offer the following odds for this Serie A match: home win around 1.62 to 1.71, draw around 2.22 to 2.30, and away win around 4.33 to 5.00. The average odds are 1.66 for Vitoria BA, 2.26 for the draw, and 4.60 for Chapecoense SC. These odds clearly show Vitoria BA as the favorite. Our Vitoria BA vs Chapecoense SC prediction is a home win, based on the stats and the 55% win probability. For betting tips, the home win odds offer value when you consider the home form, but always check the latest team news before placing a bet.