Willem II - SBV Excelsior Rotterdam prediction 05/09/2026

A prediction for Willem II vs SBV Excelsior Rotterdam on Sep 05, 2026, in the Eredivisie points to an away win. Based on recent form, head-to-head record and league table positions, SBV Excelsior Rotterdam has a 40% chance of winning, while Willem II has 30% and the draw sits at 30%. The match kicks off at 19:00 at Koning Willem II Stadion in Tilburg.

Team Form

Willem II comes into this match with poor league results. Their last three Eredivisie games show a 2-2 draw against Heerenveen, a 1-4 home loss to NEC Nijmegen and a 4-1 away defeat at Go Ahead Eagles. Those two friendly wins in pre-season do not hide the fact that the team has only one point from three league matches.

SBV Excelsior Rotterdam, on the other hand, has started the season well. They beat Sparta Rotterdam 2-1 at home, lost narrowly 1-2 to PSV Eindhoven and crushed Cambuur Leeuwarden 4-0 away. With two wins in three Eredivisie outings, the visitors arrive in much better shape.

Head-to-Head Record

The overall head-to-head between Willem II and SBV Excelsior Rotterdam is balanced: 3 wins for Willem II, 6 draws and 6 wins for Excelsior. The last five meetings include two friendly wins for Willem II (3-1 in 2022 and 2-0 in 2021), but the most recent Eredivisie clashes all ended in draws – 1-1 twice in April 2019 and a 2-2 in September 2018. This history suggests a tight contest, with a draw always a real possibility.

League Table Positions

SBV Excelsior Rotterdam sits 7th in the Eredivisie table with 6 points from 3 games (2 wins, 1 loss), scoring 7 goals and conceding only 3. Willem II does not appear in the top 12, having collected just 1 point from their three league matches. The gap in form and standings is clear, and Excelsior's strong away performance (4-0 win at Cambuur) adds to their advantage.

Win Probability: Willem II or SBV Excelsior Rotterdam?

After analyzing all available data, the win probability for this match is: SBV Excelsior Rotterdam 40%, Willem II 30%, draw 30%. The bookmakers' odds already pointed to an away favorite, and the team's superior league form, higher table position and solid away record support that. Willem II's home advantage is offset by their recent defensive struggles – they conceded 4 goals in two of their last three league games. The high number of draws in past Eredivisie meetings also keeps the draw probability at a significant 30%.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers offer varied odds for this Eredivisie clash. The average 1X2 market shows home win odds around 2.70-2.92, draw odds between 2.30 and 3.75, and away win odds from 2.30 to 2.70. SBV Excelsior Rotterdam is the slight favorite across most books. Based on the stats, the most likely outcome is an away win, but a draw cannot be ruled out. Our Willem II vs SBV Excelsior Rotterdam prediction is a tight match, with Excelsior having the edge to take all three points.