Sparta Rotterdam - Willem II prediction 17/10/2026

On 17 de outubro de 2026, Sparta Rotterdam hosts Willem II at Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel in the Eredivisie. This Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II prediction gives the home side a 52% win probability, with the draw at 28% and Willem II at 20%. Both teams are struggling for form, but the odds and head-to-head record point to a likely home victory.

Team Form

Sparta Rotterdam comes into this match without a win in their last five games (D L L D L). Their most recent result was a 3-3 draw away to Go Ahead Eagles on Oct 10. Before that, they suffered a heavy 0-4 home loss to Heerenveen and a 4-1 defeat at PSV Eindhoven. At home, they have managed only two draws in their last five outings, conceding 11 goals in those matches.

Willem II is also in poor shape, with a form line of L L D L D. They lost 0-1 at home to Fortuna Sittard on Sep 19 and were crushed 5-1 by Ajax on Sep 15. Their away form shows no wins in the last five, with two draws (1-1 at AZ Alkmaar, 2-2 at Heerenveen) and three defeats. Defensive issues are clear for both sides.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head stats heavily favor Sparta Rotterdam. In the last five meetings across all competitions, Sparta won four times, including a 4-0 home win in March 2025 and a 5-1 away victory in December 2025. Willem II's only recent success was a 3-1 friendly win in July 2025. Overall, Sparta has 15 home wins against Willem II, with only 2 draws and 8 away wins for the visitors in this fixture's history.

League Table Positions

Sparta Rotterdam sits 12th in the Eredivisie with 6 points from 8 matches (1 win, 3 draws, 4 losses). Willem II is not even in the top 12, meaning they are lower in the standings. While neither team is in a comfortable position, Sparta's slight edge in the table adds to their favorite status for this match.

Win Probability: Sparta Rotterdam or Willem II?

Based on the available data, we calculate the win probability as follows: Sparta Rotterdam 52%, Draw 28%, Willem II 20%. The odds imply a home win chance of around 50%, and we have adjusted that upward slightly due to Sparta's dominant head-to-head record and home advantage, even though their recent form is poor. Willem II's away struggles and lower league position reduce their chances. This win probability analysis answers the question of who will win Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II with a clear favorite.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see Sparta Rotterdam as the clear favorite. The best available odds are around 1.60 for a home win, 2.52 for the draw, and 4.25 for an away win. These odds reflect the gulf in quality and H2H history. Our Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II prediction is a home win, but given both teams' lack of confidence, a low-scoring affair or a draw cannot be ruled out. For betting tips, the home win offers value, but the draw could be a safer play if you expect a tight, nervy game.