Surkhon Termez - AGMK Olmaliq prediction 25/08/2026

The Surkhon Termez vs AGMK Olmaliq prediction for the Super League match on 25 de agosto de 2026 points to the away side as the clear favorite. AGMK Olmaliq has a 50% win probability, while Surkhon Termez sits at 20% and the draw at 30%. The game kicks off at 14:00, and all the key stats - head-to-head, league table, form, and odds - support the away team.

Team Form

Surkhon Termez comes into this match with a rough patch: D, L, L, W, L in their last 5 games. They managed just one win in that stretch, a 1-0 away victory against FK Kokand 1912, and suffered home defeats to Sogdiana and Navbahor Namangan. The home side has struggled to find the net consistently, and the 0-0 draw at Pakhtakor was a rare clean sheet.

AGMK Olmaliq's recent form is also mixed - L, L, W, L, W - but they have shown more danger away from home. Wins at Bunyodkor (3-2) and home against Mashal Muborak (2-1) highlight their scoring ability, though losses to Dinamo Samarqand and FK Buxoro exposed defensive issues. On the road, AGMK Olmaliq has a 5-1-3 record and sits 4th in the away league table, so they are comfortable taking points from visits.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record heavily favors AGMK Olmaliq. In 16 previous meetings, Surkhon Termez has won only 4 times, with 2 draws, and AGMK Olmaliq has 10 wins. The last five encounters show a similar pattern: two draws (1-1 and 0-0), two Surkhon Termez wins (both away, 1-0 and 3-2), and one AGMK Olmaliq win (3-1 at Surkhon Termez). Over the years, AGMK Olmaliq has dominated this fixture, and the stats suggest another strong away performance.

League Table Positions

AGMK Olmaliq sits 5th in the Super League standings with 28 points from 18 games (8 wins, 4 draws, 6 losses, 27 goals scored, 25 conceded). Surkhon Termez is not even in the top 12 - the available table shows only the top half, and the home side is missing, indicating they are likely in the relegation zone. The gap in league quality is a major factor in the Surkhon Termez vs AGMK Olmaliq prediction.

Win Probability: Surkhon Termez or AGMK Olmaliq?

After analyzing the odds, form, head-to-head, and league table, we calculated the win probabilities for this match. Surkhon Termez has a 20% chance to win, the draw is at 30%, and AGMK Olmaliq has a 50% chance. The base odds implied a 27% home win, 36% draw, and 37% away win, but the heavy H2H advantage (10 wins for AGMK Olmaliq) and the huge gap in the standings pushed the away probability to 50%. The question "who will win" is answered clearly: AGMK Olmaliq is the most likely winner, but the draw is a real possibility given both teams' inconsistent form.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see AGMK Olmaliq as the favorite. The best odds for an away win are as low as 2.08, while Surkhon Termez can be backed at 3.75. The draw odds vary between 2.15 and 3.38. Based on the stats, the prediction is an away win or a draw. A 1-1 or 0-1 scoreline looks realistic. For betting tips, the value might be on the AGMK Olmaliq win, but the draw is also a sensible consideration given the odds. The Surkhon Termez vs AGMK Olmaliq prediction leans toward the visitors, but bettors should check the latest team news before kick-off.