Parnu JK Vaprus - JK Nomme Kalju prediction 13/10/2026

Parnu JK Vaprus vs JK Nomme Kalju prediction for the Meistriliiga match on Oct 13, 2026, at 12:00. Based on the stats, JK Nomme Kalju is the favorite with a 50% win probability, while Parnu JK Vaprus has an 18% chance and the draw sits at 32%.

Team Form

Parnu JK Vaprus comes into this match with a mixed recent record: one draw, three losses, and one win in their last five games. They drew 2-2 at home against JK Narva Trans on Oct 10, lost 3-2 away to Flora Tallinn, 2-0 away to Paide Linnameeskond, and 4-0 away to Levadia Tallinn. Their only win was a 3-2 home victory over Harju JK Laagri on Sep 9. That form shows defensive struggles, conceding 13 goals in five matches.

JK Nomme Kalju's last five results are two wins and three losses. They lost 1-0 at home to Harju JK Laagri on Oct 10, but before that they beat Tammeka Tartu 3-1 away and JK Narva Trans 2-0 at home. They then lost 2-1 at home to Nomme United and 2-1 away to Flora Tallinn. Kalju's attack has been inconsistent, but they managed clean sheets in two of those five games.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record heavily favors JK Nomme Kalju. In 33 meetings, Parnu JK Vaprus has won 5, JK Nomme Kalju has won 24, and 4 ended in draws. The most recent five matches: on Aug 16, 2026, Kalju won 3-1 at home; on May 30, 2026, Vaprus won 3-1 at home; on Apr 26, 2026, Vaprus won 2-1 away; on Oct 5, 2025, Kalju won 1-0 at home; and on Aug 10, 2025, Vaprus won 2-1 away. Despite Vaprus winning three of the last five, Kalju's overall dominance is clear.

League Table Positions

In the Meistriliiga standings, JK Nomme Kalju sits 4th with 50 points from 30 games (15 wins, 5 draws, 10 losses, 52 goals scored, 28 conceded). Parnu JK Vaprus is 7th with 35 points from 30 games (10 wins, 5 draws, 15 losses, 41 goals scored, 59 conceded). At home, Vaprus is 6th with 24 points from 15 games (7 wins, 3 draws, 5 losses). Away, Kalju is 4th with 26 points from 14 games (8 wins, 2 draws, 4 losses). The gap in quality and consistency is significant, especially defensively.

Win Probability: Parnu JK Vaprus or JK Nomme Kalju?

Who will win this match? After calculating from the odds, form, head-to-head, and table positions, the win probability is: Parnu JK Vaprus 18%, draw 32%, JK Nomme Kalju 50%. The bookmakers' odds (home 4.33, draw 2.50, away 2.00) already point to an away favorite. Adjusting for Kalju's strong away record (8 wins in 14) and Vaprus's poor home defense (24 goals conceded in 15 home games), Kalju's chance rises slightly above the raw implied probability. The draw remains a real possibility given both teams' inconsistent form.

Odds & Match Prediction

The available 1X2 odds are: home win 4.33, draw 2.50, away win 2.00. These odds make JK Nomme Kalju the clear favorite. Our Parnu JK Vaprus vs JK Nomme Kalju prediction is an away win, but with caution – the draw is a strong second outcome. Based on the stats, betting tips would lean towards JK Nomme Kalju to win or the draw no bet market. The total goals could be over 2.5, given both teams' recent defensive issues.